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Commercial Real Estate Troubles Call for 1980s, S&L Style Solution
www.realclearmarkets.com ^ | July 17, 2023 | By Jim Small

Posted on 07/19/2023 2:31:56 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19

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1 posted on 07/19/2023 2:31:56 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19
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To: RomanSoldier19

Crying for another bailout, which will bring financial pain to a broad swath of the country, instead of concentrating it where it’s most deserved.

Does anybody remember the term “moral hazard”? Buehler? ANYONE?


2 posted on 07/19/2023 2:42:01 AM PDT by Chad C. Mulligan
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To: RomanSoldier19

Turn it into prison space.


3 posted on 07/19/2023 2:47:18 AM PDT by CarmichaelPatriot (Recovering Kalifornian... Loving Alabama!)
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To: RomanSoldier19

I smell another too big to fail event.

Last time, when they gave out ~2T in bailouts, even though those loans were repaid, that additional 2 trillion became part of the baseline budget, i.e., you’d think the next year’s federal budget wouldn’t have to start from +2T but it did and remained thereafter.

Same happened recently w/COVID spending which was probably worse since your state kept its covid funds in their baseline.


4 posted on 07/19/2023 2:49:07 AM PDT by fruser1
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To: RomanSoldier19
I don't think Commercial Real Estate is coming back from this one.

Too many Communists, Socialists in power, crippling fuel, WFH much more significant thanks to COVID-19(84)...plus who really wants to travel into cities any more?

I got tired of potholes and orange/white barrels.

Not to mention city earnings tax on top of the extra gas and drive.

If the right job came along (I suppose) and I got my cars back to 100%.

I have confidence in pResident Potato to do further damage to the economy and the Treasury Department via wanton spending

5 posted on 07/19/2023 2:51:12 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: RomanSoldier19

Better to let the market sort itself out.


6 posted on 07/19/2023 3:01:03 AM PDT by Fido969 (45 is Superman! )
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To: SaveFerris
Too many Communists, Socialists in power,

Are those the right words for bailing out the rich?

Some might say we live in a Plutocracy, which is a kind of Oligarchy.

7 posted on 07/19/2023 3:19:20 AM PDT by Angelino97
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To: RomanSoldier19

It’s not a bailout of the commercial market.
It’s a scheme that ends with saving Big City marxists and their unions


8 posted on 07/19/2023 3:40:49 AM PDT by Steven Tyler
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To: RomanSoldier19

Government is not the answer


9 posted on 07/19/2023 3:51:15 AM PDT by frogjerk (More people have died trusting the government than not trusting the government.)
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To: RomanSoldier19

Remember the adjustable mortgage rates of the 1970’s and early 80’s? A fixed rate was unavailable during that time....a time of inflation.

Repeat, but worse coming??

We didn’t have a national debt in the trillions then. It was in the billions.


10 posted on 07/19/2023 3:52:15 AM PDT by xenia ( “The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it” George Orwell)
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To: Fido969

Relying on the Market, THAT would be the best solution. However, one can ALWAYS count on Government to make the absolute WRONG decision in just about every case.

I’m holding out for that one odd case where government makes the “RIGHT” decision. Delusional maybe, but they can’t be wrong 100% of the time, or can they?????


11 posted on 07/19/2023 3:58:12 AM PDT by OHPatriot (Si vis pacem, para bellum)
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To: RomanSoldier19

This is far worse than 2008.

An aside, I am never going back to an office.
There are millions in agreement with me.


12 posted on 07/19/2023 4:21:53 AM PDT by EEGator
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To: RomanSoldier19
Am I misremembering? I recall the S&L crisis caused a ton of people to be foreclosed on their homes. The S&L system was not bailed out it was put out of its misery and big banks bought them up for pennies on the dollar. I don't even think the FSLIC could hand the defaulting S&Ls and the FDIC had to step in and help cover insured deposits.

So if it means letting the commercial real estate owners getting foreclosed and banks going belly up then I am all for a bailout.

If it means allowing current investors to hold onto their real estate that they leveraged too high to cover for a downturn, then NO I am not for it. If it means the banks that wrote the risky financing get made whole then NO I am not for it.

13 posted on 07/19/2023 4:23:00 AM PDT by stig
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To: RomanSoldier19

Sure explains why bank CEOs like Jamie Dimon have been so vocal, forceful and adamant about employees needing to return to the office.


14 posted on 07/19/2023 4:23:47 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: stig

The ultimate cost to taxpayers was estimated to be as high as $124 billion.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/savings-and-loan-crisis#resolution


15 posted on 07/19/2023 4:28:00 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19 (Res ad Triarios venit;“We are your ghosts, in this game played by monkeys, organized by lunatics” )
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To: RomanSoldier19

This is what needs to happen:

If commercial office loans aren’t performing, banks need to seize and sell off the underlying assets. Other real estate managers will buy these properties from the banks manage them anew—or perhaps redevelop them as residential properties.

That is how the system is supposed to work and would work, if left to go through the intended process.

Otherwise, losers are rewarded, the moral hazard of careless bank loans is increase, and more responsible lenders are not relatively rewarded.

If some banks go under, so it goes. That is how the rest of the economy works.

An apt metaphor is a forest in which neither fires nor cutting of underbrush are allowed until full conflagration comes.


16 posted on 07/19/2023 4:30:02 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: stig

With a fiat currency like ours, the role of the government is to protect the value of the currency — even if it means artificially propping up non-performing assets that are collateral for loans. The government’s only interest in bailing out the borrower is to keep the lender solvent — thereby propping up the currency.


17 posted on 07/19/2023 4:30:59 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("I've just pissed in my pants and nobody can do anything about it." -- Major Fambrough)
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To: 9YearLurker

18 posted on 07/19/2023 4:31:43 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19 (Res ad Triarios venit;“We are your ghosts, in this game played by monkeys, organized by lunatics” )
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To: RomanSoldier19

The wealthy win no matter what and the middle class and poor pay for it.


19 posted on 07/19/2023 4:32:18 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks, and have the will to use them.)
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To: RomanSoldier19
So tired of government "too big or important to fail" excuse for bailing out ANY business.

LET THEM FAIL !

20 posted on 07/19/2023 4:46:49 AM PDT by JesusIsLord
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