The draft is not going to be reinstated over Ukraine (or Taiwan). There’s no war we would fight with another nuclear power that would need us to add combat brigades or would inflict a greater number of casualties than our volunteer recruiting pipeline or ability to reassign personnel.
With or without a draft, we’re probably looking at 24+ months to stand up a new combat brigade. From the introduction of legislation, at least 18 months to get combat-useful E2s and O1s into platoons, and to have NCOs and more senior officers moved over and replaced in the losing units. Defense contractors at least 18 months to get trucks, armor, artillery, light arms, comms, food, and health equipment and materials in place, and that’s a hurculean effort. Then six months to train to a deployable condition.
There’s zero use case for draftees for the Air Force, Navy or Coast Guard. In those branches, enlisted people maintain and support the operation of metal, and we have zero ability to add metal. It’s five years from order to delivery of a combat ship or plane.
Oh, I feel so relieved. We are one Uke false flag or insane use of British cruise missiles or DC reckless escalation from mobilization. You might want to acquaint yourself with the history of the 20th century and the history of the multiple US drafts.
“It’s five years from order to delivery of a combat ship or plane.”
While this is true for New Equipment, there is still plenty of equipment in long term storage that could be brought back to fill gaps.