Ukraine may be close to surpassing Russia in active tank numbers, but Russia has a near endless supply of Soviet tanks in storage, military experts say

Business Insider ^ | Jul 13, 2023 | Erin Snodgrass

[MinorityRepublican]

Ukraine is close to equalizing its tank numbers with Russia, new data suggests. But even as the country's active tank count climbs, Russia is unlikely to run out of armored vehicles any time soon.

More than 18 months into the war, Ukraine is on track to surpass Russia in the size of its battlefield tank fleet, Bloomberg reported this week, citing a compilation of several data sources and defense statements.

The Military Balance 2023, an annual report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said Russia began the war in February 2022 with 3,417 available tanks, compared to Ukraine's 987. Heavy Russian losses coupled with a steady stream of donations from Ukraine's Western allies, however, have helped even the score in intervening months.

[MeganC]

The ironic thing here is the factories that were best suited to restoring all those Ruzzian tanks to active duty were in Ukraine.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Putin expected to win in days if not weeks and be an eternal Hero of RuZZia.

But now the whole world is laughing at him (Wagner, etc) including the Chinese, Iranians and North Koreans.

[pepsionice]

It wouldn’t surprise me if CIA analysts woke up a year ago and did the numbers....realizing that Russia in a prolonged war, won’t be able to recover for at least thirty years, in terms of replacing the lost equipment.

[Widget Jr]

but Russia has a near endless supply of Soviet tanks in storage, military experts say

No, they don't. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11803 Feb/3/2023. Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia. Of the 3,400 tanks Russia had at the start, they have lost 2,000. That's out of all operational tanks Russia had.

Russia has 8 to 10 thousand tanks in storage, from T-55s to newer models. Since the collapse of the USSR, most of them have been kept outside and not properly maintained. Some can be brought into service, some as spare parts and others left to rust where they are. Russia does not have thousands of trained crews, nor the means to properly train them if they had.

The fact that Russia is sending T-55s means they don't have unlimited tanks.

[nickcarraway]

Do Chechens know how to operate these tanks?

[nickcarraway]

What about the lost people? Russia has a birth rate lower than 1.5. It has the 2nd highest suicide rate of a country over 3 million people. The male life expectancy is 64. That’s from before the wat=r, so I’m sure it’s lower now.

[NorseViking]

Of course not. The article is a hogwash in line with “Russia has run out of ammunition”. Ukraine’s Malyshev plant produced exactly one tank between 2009 and 2016, and practically defunct since 2019 when the utilities were cut off.
Russia used to have a small number of T-64s made at this factory but they all have been pulled from service about a decade ago.
For comparison, a single UVZ facility in Russia used to produce 80% of tanks in the world through the 2010s. Now they work in three shifts and make as many per quarter as they used to make per year before. Two other facilities reactivated on top of that.

[MinorityRepublican]

Russia has 8 to 10 thousand tanks in storage, from T-55s to newer models. Since the collapse of the USSR, most of them have been kept outside and not properly maintained. Some can be brought into service, some as spare parts and others left to rust where they are.

I'm not a Russian. So I can't really say. Is this a war of survival? The '90s were chaotic for Russia. I don't think Russia would want to go back to that. Maybe that's why the Russians are willing to fight for Putin.

Point is that they'll use what they have in storage and find a way to make it work. Now they are defending Crimea, the Russians have the advantage. They can use tanks behind the lines to support infantry.

[Widget Jr]

No idea. Oryx has a list of verified equipment by photograph, no tanks. Russia may be reluctant to give its proxies the high end hardware.

[MeganC]

I will not hold my breath for the thousands of T-14 tanks that Ruzzia needs to win this war and to defend against China.

[nathanbedford]

Tanks fight on the X and Y axis but this war will be won or lost depending on who conquers in the air. Air defenses are thick on the ground on both sides so it appears that manned aircraft will probably not turn the trick for the Ukrainians even if they acquire a number of F-16s.

Without air cover, tanks are vulnerable to warthogs and the modern warthog is a drone. Look for a new tank in the sky, drones, more thick in the air than currently artillery is on the ground. But anti-tank planes can be deployed only in the wake of the extermination of land-based anti-air defenses which the Ukrainians have no reasonable hope of acquiring because of the expense involved in so many levels of a dominance that must be obtained. Drones are a relatively inexpensive substitute for manned aircraft without the morale debilitating loss of life inevitably associated with manned flight when air defenses have not been eliminated.

It takes months and perhaps years to train up a cadre of F-16 pilots and support them with logistics on the ground. Not so with drones, a drone pilot could be relatively inexperienced and ineffective, still the downside is only the relatively cheap price of a lost drone when the mission goes awry.

It is the air war that will produce the Victor in this war. Swarm drones.

[NorseViking]

How are these points relevant? Russia is not going to fight against China, her enemies are in Europe. Russia has nothing it won’t share with China without war and it is going to support China in the Pacific conflict.

[Rockingham]

Moreover, due to poor tank quality and a lack of fully trained crews and fuel, the Russians have been parking tanks in dug out and camouflaged positions that have the hull below ground level with only the turret exposed. This minimizes the chances of a hit on the tank, but it also means that their tanks are not moving and operating in a group. If the Ukrainians achieve a breakout, the Russian tank force will risk defeat in detail as individual tanks and small groups struggle to stem the Ukrainian advance.

[MinorityRepublican]

It is the air war that will produce the Victor in this war. Swarm drones.

Russia is getting their drones from Iran. So I don't think that the drones will make a difference in this war even though they will play an important role.

[jerod]

The Ruzzsian's are coming...

[NorseViking]

“Russians have been parking tanks in dug out and camouflaged positions that have the hull below ground level with only the turret exposed.”

Do you make this up on the fly?

[nathanbedford]

The Western allies can get drones from many sources with better engineering and technological capability than those available from Iran and they have far greater economic resources with which to acquire the drones. Importantly, the allies have far greater technical intelligence capabilities than do the Russians to be coupled with the drones to render them for more effective. Manned air is not a viable alternative, putting Ukrainians in tanks to be destroyed at the rate that experienced during their spring offensive is not a viable alternative. Swarm drones.

[pepsionice]

Years ago, I worked with a AF officer who’d done a Soviet studies degree as a college student...after the Wall came down. He spent roughly two semesters in a Russian college as part of the program.

The one odd factor which he commented on...seeing day to day...alcoholism is rampant in Russia, to the point where he suggested of the age 40 to 60 male population...probably only 50-percent of them are what you’d call truly ‘productive’ at work. This meant daily accidents occurred in production, logistics, and construction.

So I asked the stupid question...was this a new thing in the after-the-Soviet-era? No...Soviet era vodka factories pumped out tons of booze...cheaply...to make the male population ‘happy’.

You have a valid point about the ‘lost’ men in this war. But it’s simply going to contribute to a very minor society in the next two generations. Present ‘believed’ population is 143-million. Most statistics people believe the number is fudged, and with around a million believed to have left in 2022/2023...it’s probably closer something like 135-million.

I’ve met a couple of exited-Russians in Europe over the past decade. Zero interest in going back, and they have relatives continually asking for help in getting resettled.

[popdonnelly]

Armor doesn’t guarantee success. Both sides have been losing armored vehicles in large numbers. Plenty of anti-armor weapons that are relatively cheap.