Posted on 07/11/2023 8:18:21 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX), who won a special election last year and then lost in the general election in November, is launching a comeback bid for her old congressional seat.
Flores shocked the political world when last year she won a special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district–traditionally it has been a Democrat stronghold–winning outright and avoiding a runoff in June last year.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I hope so.
Of course she has “a” chance. She doesn’t have a “good” chance. Apologies in advance if some Pollyanna considers the following to be too “Eeyore-ish”, but here are the facts:
The OLD 34th district in which Flores won that 4-way special election 13 months ago was pretty much a tossup and had trended slightly to the right as of 2020. Special elections are always prone to fluke outcomes due to low turnout, but the flukes usually favor the left. This one didn’t.
The NEW 34th district in which Flores lost the general in November of 2022 was moved about 5 points to the left in redistricting. That’s why Democrat Vicente Gonzalez — who was the incumbent in the adjacent 15th district — packed up his carpetbag and slithered over to the new 34th. The new version of the 15th was moved 2 or 3 points to the right and the GOP did pick that one up last November and hopefully will be able to hold it in the future.
Texas has no party registration but the current 34th is probably somewhere around 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats. Some of those D’s occasionally vote R (slightly more so now than in the past); most do not.
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