There’s zero evidence Russia is able to make meaningful offensive progress with Wagner forces, to say the least of without them.
The evidence is that Ukraine has a small overall advantage that it has pressed to take back Russian-held territory in fits and starts over the past year, and will continue to do so.
The only things that makes it a “stalemate” is Russia’s willingness and ability to commit continual war crimes ... intentional missile strikes on civilian targets ... while Ukraine is either unwilling or unable to do the same.
“to commit continual war crimes “
In war, there are no “war crimes”.
Kill and destroy everything and everybody on the other side of the line. That’s not a crime, that’s war.
War is itself the crime.
Someone pulls a knife on you. They get the upper hand in the fight. Are you not going to poke their eyes out, kick em in the groin, or bite their fingers off because it’s not nice or it’s against the Marquise of Queensbury rules?