Posted on 06/26/2023 8:01:14 AM PDT by CA Conservative
There is no denying that Donald Trump still holds the most sway over the Republican base. He is a former president, he is still (in their eyes) being persecuted unfairly by the Democrats and the Biden administration, and he is certainly an attention-grabber.
But there is a major difference between dominating a primary and winning a general election, and the most recent polling seems to show that, for all his support among Republicans, Trump is still not yet favored over Joe Biden in a “Devil You Know vs. Another Devil You Know” election fight.
On Sunday, NBC News released its latest poll on the 2024 election, and the numbers are fairly consistent with what we’ve seen – that Trump is a dominant force in the GOP, but the American public at large is still very hesitant where the former president is concerned. This is the same poll, mind you, that shows nearly three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. So if Trump is still struggling to overcome that, well… things aren’t great.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
But that’s currently where Trump’s fortunes end. That same NBC News poll shows Trump coming up short of Joe Biden in a rematch from 2020, which Biden four points ahead of Trump, 49-45.
Caveat: It is still extremely early for both the primary and the general election. None of this is set in stone.
However, it is fairly consistent. Trump has routinely come up short in most polling, and Biden is currently averaging a slight lead, especially in the wake of the same indictment that got him a boost in the primary polling. You see, of course, where this is headed.
The cockiness of the Trump campaign is unmatched. He and his team, rightly or wrongly, believe he still wears the crown and every challenger is a pretender to the throne. He spends more time (and money) attacking other Republicans than he does Biden and the Democrats. Their strategy, as of right now, is to beat the Republican Party into submission, just like he did in 2016.
His problem? 2016 was about voters hating the idea of Hillary Clinton more than the idea of Donald Trump. 2020 was about voters being tired of the drama of Trump and going with someone who, at the time, just seemed really dull and boring – something America desperately wanted instead of a sideshow.
2024, however, is something different. Biden’s administration has been AWOL on key issues like immigration and crime. The economy has been terrible under his watch, and a recession still looms large over the American kitchen table. Biden himself comes across as an old man with dementia and his party is just committing elder abuse at this point. Americans are absolutely sour on the idea of Joe Biden.
So why, then, are they currently favoring Biden over Trump? It can’t be that the polling is wrong. If that polling is wrong, so is the polling showing Trump is dominating the field. The likely answer is, again, Trump’s drama. Americans are likely figuring that the drama goes away if Trump does and the rest of the Republican Party can hold the worst of the Democrats’ impulses at bay if they keep Republicans in just enough power to do so. And Democrats make that easy when they endorse people dancing naked in front of kids at Pride events, mutilating children for the sake of wokeness, and more.
It’s extremely likely, however, that Trump isn’t going to bow out, which makes the challenge that much harder for the NotTrump candidates, particularly Ron DeSantis. The primary has to go through Trump, but it has to be done in a way that doesn’t alienate Trump supporters (not the loud, obnoxious voices on social media, but the regular voter who likes Trump but also likes to win elections). I could not begin to tell you if such a road exists, but you can bet that every single campaign that is serious about winning is exploring and focus-grouping ways to find that path.
Is Trump doomed to fall to Biden again? No. As I said, it’s still early, and a full-on recession gives Trump a big advantage. But you can’t run a campaign that is solely focused on winning the primary. You need to be working your general election messaging a lot more than Trump and his team have been.”
Well yeah. Hard to beat 100 million votes. Or whatever number they need to win.
Ah yes, RedState - The NeoCon go-to for everything Anti-Trump.
Trump will have a difficult time with Independent voters.
Having Trump on the ticket will lose the White House, and both houses of Congress. The Dems will paint every GOP candidate as a MAGA Republican.
Keep in mind, this is before the coming Jan 6 indictment and the indictments coming from Georgia. And...the Trial coming in the Autumn.
I am not making a judgement whether any of that is “fair”. It is what it is and complaining about the fairness of it won’t change how the party is going to be “painted.”
Not what a lot of folks on FR want to hear...but again...the Independents don’t care about what FR thinks.
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Imagine if the Republicans treated him like Trump.
Pelosi called him every name in the book. And pointed in his face and grandstanded in the Oval Office.
McCarthy went out and said how much credit Biden deserves after Biden went to Beach for a long weekend and entrusted McCarthy to carry his water.
If they called the guy a Criminal, a Felon, a Crime boss, a Compromised person lacking all morals - Biden would drop 15 pts in the Polls.
They’re not going to do it. They spend money with Joe and their fiefdoms grow under Joe.
Very Misleading headline. The latest Rasmussnen and Harvard-Harris polls, both post-indictment, show Trump with a six point lead over Biden.
Of course he fails against Biden because you can’t beat someone who will get endless fake ballots.
This fool says Trump and his campaign is over confident then immediately complains that he’s still attacking the Repukes (I.e. fighting to win the primary). Crooked Joe has all of the media and all of the Repukes attacking Trump for him while simultaneously ignoring and defending him from his criminal history. This is not on Trump. If there isn’t going to be a fair election process the voters don’t actually have an option (or a Republic). That’s not on Trump. The American people have to figure it out or be prepared to hand their young children to rich perverts and their wives to immigrants. When that happens. Don’t go crying to Trump.
Biden won’t be running and Redstate is well know TSDers, RDS has no chance because he is GOPe and also a terrible candidate personality.
Nonsense. Trump is the supreme ruler of all the Earth and will get at least 112% of the vote, and his opponent will be in the negatives and owe votes for all MAGA candidates throughout the land. Anyone who says differently is a NeoCon, Deep Stater, Zeeper. Or something like that.
Its that they over sample demorats.
Strange, the Harvard/Harris poll last week had Trump up over Biden by six points as did Rasmussen. So Biden became widely more popular in the week that it was proven him and his progeny had received millions in foreign criminal bribes?
Good grief. If it’s even remotely close between the best and the worst presidents in history, the country is as good as toast! I don’t believe this - are they starting their neck-n-neck make the steal look legit polls early?
Trump will get a spike every time he gets indicted but it will fade. Who wants to be reminded of porn star payoffs, bad hiring choices, keeping classified government documents, and so forth? Sure, Trump can say that everyone else does it, so can he, but did that work for us as kids, did it work for our own kids? No, Trump is on his way out, hopefully won’t destroy the party and the nation in 2024.
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Well, there are those problems.
I agree.
Sounds like Joe Cunningham believes what his IPhone told him about "baseless charges of ballot fraud"...
Trump trounced Biden in 2020. He’ll exceed that this time.
The only problem for the GOP is to eliminate the rampant cheating in large urban areas.
JMO, but plenty of independent voters are independent because they just couldn’t support the corporate republican party (or the corporate democrat party) any more.
A pro-multinational corp., pro-globalist candidate (even though though in alignment with the NRC) will not improve on on Trump’s numbers in the general.
(At least without “fortification” of the election.)
Amen, brother.
Nope.
Trump has brought in 13.5 million voters in 2020 compared to 2012.
Those 13.5 million voters are mostly NOT Republicans.
They ARE Democrats and Independants.
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