Several Powerful Ukrainian Brigades Are Missing In Action

Forbes ^ | Jun 22, 2023 | David Axe

[MinorityRepublican]

Where is the Ukrainian army’s 117th Mechanized Brigade?

The answer to that question has implications for Ukraine’s 18-day-old southern counteroffensive, which has been making slow progress along several axes in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.

Kyiv and its foreign allies spent months standing up, training and equipping nine new brigades specifically for the counteroffensive, plus additional brigades that would function as a reserve.

But so far we’ve seen just three, maybe four, of the brigades in action alongside older Ukrainian formations. The 117th Mechanized Brigade is one of the missing brigades. Where the brigade is, and what it’s waiting for, could speak volumes about Kyiv’s strategy as the counteroffensive grinds into its third week.

When the Ukrainians attacked starting the night of June 4, they did so in battalion-size formations along three or four main sectors. These attacks, while ultimately successful, were costly.

Elements of the new 37th Marine Brigade outran its artillery support near Velyka Novosilka and lost several AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles. A battlegroup from a pair of new brigades—the 33rd Mechanized and 47th Assault Brigades—got mired in a minefield south of Mala Tomachka and abandoned a couple dozen of its best tanks, fighting vehicles and breaching vehicles.

It’s possible Ukrainian commanders were probing for gaps in Russian defenses along the southern front line—and holding back the bulk of their forces, saving them for an eventual exploitation of a breach.

“We know this is going to take time, and we are confident that the Ukrainians have what they need,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters on Tuesday. “They have the combat power.”

But where is that combat power? Have the Ukrainians staged all nine of their new brigades in the south? How close are they to the front line? How fast could they roll into action?

[hinckley buzzard]

Hitler did.

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These attacks, while ultimately successful, were costly.

As compared to fighting mainly a defensive position, they are finding the age old realization that it takes a huge ratio of attacker vs defender to develop a successful attack strategy. Rule of thumb used to be, if attacking a hardened defense that you need a 10 to 1 numeric advantage to overcome losses and maintain momentum.