Here are my thoughts:
1. I am not Russian so I don’t know what the people there are thinking. Russian posters have suggested that we have a poor understanding of the mentality, and they are used to enduring war and endless war. This may play a bigger role in ‘instability’ than anything else.
2. Putin isn’t forever. He has medical issues, that is fact. He won’t be in power forever, but it will be his war.
3. Comparing Ukraine to NAZI Germany only works in the eyes of the Kremlin. Nobody else believes that Russia has been invaded by a hostile fascist nation (operation Barbarossa), or that Russia hasn’t invaded it’s neighbor TWICE inside of 15 years, or that Russia hasn’t threatened other neighbors (Poland) with invasion. Russia hasn’t taken the role of the aggressor, they own that.
4. Even Russians, in the information thick modern world, aren’t sequestered from facts and outside opinions. This isn’t Stalin’s Russia, stark everyday reality will be available to the average Russian, and that could very easily change ‘historical’ norms and expectations.
Basically, I don’t have any expectations about when the Russian People will get tired of the Leadership and the Ukrainian war. The above suggests that it’s completely unpredictable because of the information flow. Russia leadership would be wise to consider that.
My personal look at what is what inside Russia is from travel vloggers trying to make money on youtube. The videos posted before and even after February of last year do not agree with most western assessments.
1) They are not technologically backwards. This is first on my list because it is so bizarre that the west has this presumption. Russia was the only way for astronauts to reach the ISS for about 10 yrs when the Shuttle was scrapped. This is not a reality one should wave away. It is real. Their tech is superb. Just accept that.
2) I have seen precisely zero efforts at polling of any kind, from any biased or unbiased source in Russia, that says anything other than overwhelming support for Putin. Again, the tendency is to wave this away or decide it’s because this techno backwards people do not understand something. It’s just insane to go on thinking this. They strongly support Putin. The opponents get the same media amplification as Never Trumpers get, increasing the impression of their numbers beyond the 5-10% of reality.
3) This is the first war in the history of mankind in which excellent satellite recon is available to both sides. There are no surprises. If forces mass and a decision is made not to oppose that particular mass, there will be essentially bloodless retreats. This is profoundly different from warfare of the past and deludes everyone about what goes on.
“Basically, I don’t have any expectations about when the Russian People will get tired of the Leadership and the Ukrainian war. The above suggests that it’s completely unpredictable because of the information flow. Russia leadership would be wise to consider that.”
The West has made it PERFECTLY CLEAR to Russians that they were right to go into Ukraine. Why the West did something that stupid is beyond my thinking.