Posted on 06/12/2023 3:26:47 PM PDT by Kazan
When this started Ukraine had the second largest military force in Europe with the backing of countries that have over 20 times the GDP that Russia does. I doubt that any of their military planners had even the slightest inkling that this would be a quick in and out operation.
I believe that the Russians likely assumed that common sense would prevail, and that a negotiated settlement would be reached fairly quickly. But they already had one of the most self-sufficient economies in the world and the moronic “sanctions” actually injected over $100 Billion more from their exports into their economy in 2022 as compared to 2021. This was a 38% rise in revenue.
We have people here who believe the sanctions are working and they cite Ural crude as being an example. Supposedly it is selling for around $50 a barrel, but in reality, through under the table deals the Russians have actually been getting over $80 a barrel. Similar shenanigans have been taking place with India and China.
Here is an interesting article that outlines some of the other ways that the Russians have prospered as a result of the sanctions.
Double Win: How Russian Oil Companies Defied Sanctions and Paid Less Tax
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89052
In 2022 over two dozen additional Russian billionaires were minted largely as a result of the “sanctions”. Putin is as popular as he has ever been, not just in Russia but also in countries where 90% of the world's population resides. The Russians have conflicting motivation. On one hand this has no doubt been a painful time for many Russian families, on the other hand people outside of Western media's influence see this conflict in a completely different way. They see Russia as an underdog standing up to Western powers who have economies that are many times as large.
There is no credible evidence that Russia has become more unstable politically. 25% of Ukrainians have escaped from the country mostly women, children and senior citizens. 40% of them chose to go to Russia and not their more prosperous European neighbors. Why would they choose to go to Russia if the country was on the verge of political instability?
“I believe that the Russians likely assumed that common sense would prevail, and that a negotiated settlement would be reached fairly quickly.”
Same mistake the Japanese made when they bombed Pearl Harbor, and dragged the Germans into the war as well. Never start a war hoping for a negotiated settlement. Historically huge mistake.
“There is no credible evidence that Russia has become more unstable politically.”
Please see recent quoted from head of the Wagner Group. His words, not mine.
He is an interesting character, but his quotes are all over the map and basically meaningless. If he was actually sharing valuable info with the West; he would not be the head of the Wagner Group anymore.
You are making an extreme reach with the Pearl Harbor comparison. The reasons they did this is still debated over 80 years later. You are the first person I have heard say it was because they hoped to reach a negotiated settlement. Do you have a source for that?
Russia has increased production to 20 tanks a day from 2-20 a month since February 2023, very impressive. Hard to believe. Where is Russian aircraft and air superiority over the battlefield? Why is Russia defensive when it has more people and supplies than Ukraine?===
Good question why Russia is defensive. Because he needs to demilitarize Ukraine. Meaning to eliminate her fighters. This is going easy if they are coming up to you.
M60 were upgraded with reactive armor years ago, and fire control systems, so not like T62, more like your upgraded T72, but more reliable and lots of them. ==
They are still tanks of 1960th. But ok I don’t want to argue because we need to see on a battlefield and then we will know.
Russia still has a serious aircraft problem, US storage far exceeds all of Russian capability. The war drags on I suspect they will give in to supplying them. ==
Again we may see this only if they get to battlefield.
The Russians have gone from invasion, to coalescing battle lines, to stagnation, shortages, and now loss of more ground on the defensive.==
Some changes of tactics there I agree but it is just a beginning of a war not ending. Russia is only warming up. She uses only fraction of her potential now. She might mobilize and arm more then 5 mlns fighters at least but for now there is a mostly volunteer army like 10 time lesser. But ukies are already of coscript army and they lose 10 to 1.
Also she didn’t use a tactical nukes yet but she will if needed for sure.
The Russians had a shot at quick strike and failed, since then it’s gone the wrong way. People are dying for what looks like an epic failure, and Russia is being further damaged. Yes, an unstable Russia is possible. For what at this point?===
If you knew the history of Russia then you might know that she all time fights some war. No peace time for her. Also once in 20-30 years there is a big war for generation. And once for century there is a survival war for all ages.
Russia for her millennium already history fought more the 1000 wars. It all kinda forged her people a special way. Russians are fighters by blood. They all are descendants of some war veterans of a past.
Meaning new people got adult then got to Russia military then fought some war then got victory then they got home and got children. And this way for millennium.
Not everyone is this way but very much.
Also if you check a creation of Russia then you find that she was founded by Vikings. Same Viking who terrorized westren Europe in about 7-8 century. They also seek the direct way to Byzantines along river Dnepr and they found a ancient Rus with center in Kiev.
In 13 century Mongols came and they destroyed the central part of Rus around Kiev but a northern part survived and become new Rus with center in Moscow. Russia are descendent of this new Rus. But also she descendent of Mongol Orda too. And she took all Orda lands and became so big.
SO all Russians have Viking and Mongol blood but central part is mix of middle Europe types including Slavs not really dominative as they think. The language is a slavic but with huge inserting from turkish (the language of Orda) so other Slavs don’t understand us. But we do them.
I don’t know about Donbas, or Crimea, or western Russia. People can move, if they are alive and the ground isn’t lethal from warfare. ==
It is our inheritance from out ancestors. We not going anywhere. We will fight for our land. Simple is it.
Thank you for your viewpoint! Russia has been fighting continuous wars, and suffering appears to be the normal there. The constant conflict makes Russia stronger in many ways. The mentality appears to also be ingrained into Ukrainians, since they have suffered even more, especially since 1914.
No rational people support NAZI’s. I find no room in my heart for democratic socialists (NAZI) or Socialist Democrats (Marxists). They bothall end up acting the same. George Soros involvement in Ukraine, as well as the Democrats in the US, lend a tiny amount of question if Fascism hasn’t crept into Ukraine.
Let’s for the sake of this discussion say you are correct, and Russia is rapidly ramping up production to 100% capacity. Will that be enough to take and hold Ukraine as it becomes better armed potentially quicker than Russia can mobilize? What if Russia is forced to use them to stop an advancing Ukrainian army? Tactical nukes, especially in southwestern Russia, would be devastating for Russian food production. Starving people cause political instability.
This conflict was simple when it was a special operation blitzkrieg by Russia. That failed. Now it’s about either 100% mobilization and total victory, or the other possibilities discussed. For the sake of millions upon millions, the 100% mobilization and victory is better than thermonuclear catastrophe with starvation and disgrace of Russia.
Then there is something called peace. The less ground Russia holds, the bloodier the conflict, and the more time spent at war, the harder it is to achieve.
Russia has been fighting continuous wars, and suffering appears to be the normal there. The constant conflict makes Russia stronger in many ways. The mentality appears to also be ingrained into Ukrainians, since they have suffered even more, especially since 1914.==
Ukrainians are losers. Former Russians who decided to stop to be Russians. They were Malorosses (Russians) by origin who renamed themselves to Ukrainians for not be Russians anymore. Such self-haters.
They are “holops” Of Europe. If you know any Ukie personally then ask him about their “holopstvo”. I’m sure they won’t even deny it.
Ukies are disgrace of Russians. That is why the fight with them is so intensive.
Let’s for the sake of this discussion say you are correct, and Russia is rapidly ramping up production to 100% capacity. Will that be enough to take and hold Ukraine as it becomes better armed potentially quicker than Russia can mobilize?==
Yeah for Russia the war is normal condition but for Ukraine and Europe isn’t. I guess they will stop keeping up. But Russia will go better and better with time.
And we are forgetting Russian allies: China-N.Korea-Iran. They may send their equipment and even volunteers like Foreign Legion to fight this war.
SO if Putin won’t do something stupid Russia will win eventually.
“And we are forgetting Russian allies: China-N.Korea-Iran. They may send their equipment and even volunteers like Foreign Legion to fight this war.
SO if Putin won’t do something stupid Russia will win eventually.”
I think China is already supporting the Russian war effort, probably several other countries as you list. Sending Volunteers is very problematic, they get captured and talk to much. Russia has a ‘warrior’ mentality it will just keep drafting and sending people to fight, it’s simpler that way.
Putin isn’t stupid, don’t confuse him with Biden. Putin may be medically ill, but he is not stupid. He is a great intellect, and has proven that his entire life.
Your input has been important to understanding the Russian ideas. My projection is that the war will go on, Ukraine will get fighters and fighter pilots, and the death will continue for Ukraine and Russia. I think that’s what the Chinese, US, NATO really want....a burned out Russian military and economy...and potentially no victory or a Pyrrhic victory. China always looks after China, they will profit from the continued war. When the war is over, who will Russia’s friendly trade neighbors be?
I appreciate your time in responding, helps to see the other point of view of this conflict. I just can’t see how when it’s over, Russia will benefit from the experience economically, politically, militarily, stability, or even safety. Basically, there is no path to a victory or just to Pyrrhic victory only. There has to be a better way.
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