“But I disagree with your assessment that Taiwan is unconquerable, especially for a rich nation 90 miles away.”
Consider this: Taiwan has 23 million people, you would need 1 chinese soldier for every 3 taiwan citizens to occupy and pacify the island, and china has no way to transport troops except by a few transports that can hold maybe 1000 soldiers each. So imagine the time and money spent sending 7 million troops back and forth 90 miles across the ocean, and assuming you can do all that without Taiwan sinking any of those ships, and that is not even considering the guerilla warfare involved with occupation.
Occupation rate is more like 1 in 50. That’s about what Germany needed in Western Europe, 1940-45. And an occupied Taiwan wouldn’t have a sanctuary for its partisans, its an island. And the Chinese wont be fooling around. The occupation won’t be the problem.
And China certainly has the shipping to get 1 million plus men to Taiwan. And Taiwan has a very limited ability to interdict this, not after its airforce and navy are suppressed by overwhelming numbers of Chinese aircraft and missiles.
Now, the sticking point for an invader is getting off the beaches. Taiwan has a huge mass of artillery and the usable beaches are rather limited. If this happens for real its going to be a titanic struggle on those beaches, a cataclysm that would make Tarawa and Omaha Beach look like little league games.
Too high a risk I think. There are better ways for China to win.
There is no nation on planet earth that is unconquerable, if others have the will and the means to accomplish it. And there will ALWAYS be someone — or a group of someones — with both the will and the means.
How does that math change as they start steamrolling dissident civilians with tanks?
Consider this: 700,000 Americans are on blood pressure medication sourced 100% from China.
How many of them will be among your first KIA in the war with China?
The Chinese would blockade Taiwan. Nothing in, nothing out. Take about 3 months and they would surrender.