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Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1
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Former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence, former defence politician and chief of staff Sweden Democrats. Current political and military analyst.

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1666662302140051458
Mikael Valtersson

@MikaelValterss1
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN TACTICS MORNING JUNE 8
I must say that I’m both a bit confused and disappointed in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their behaviour on the battlefield on the Southern front. There might be an hidden tactic that will be seen in the coming days, but what we have seen since June 4th doesn’t look good.

I was very disappointed in the Russian Armed Forces in the beginning of the war and surprised of the combat prowess of the ukrainian forces. While awaiting the ukrainian counteroffensive I expected ukrainian forces to act and perform better than they have. I wonder if it’s a case of underestimating the russian enemy. It seems like the ukrainian forces expected the russians to buckle under pressure and just abandon their positions. I can’t explain the ukrainian tactic otherwise. They are attacking with wave after wave straight into minefields and russian kill zones.

Russians are often accused of using human waves while attacking, but now it seems that the ukrainians do the same against the russian defences. That’s suicide if the enemy stays and fight. Even if ukrainian forces succeed in breaking through one defenceline due to local superiority in soldiers and weaponry they are losing the bigger game with horrendous losses. They must understand that, I’m sure of it. So the only explanation is that they underestimated their russian adversary and expected them to flee.

This underestimation is probably based on the successful information war from Kiev and the west claiming that russians are worthless fighters. That narrative seems to been so successful that ukrainian planners was convinced by their own propaganda that they just to kick in the door, then the entire rotten russian house would fall apart. This might have cost Ukraine any chance of victory this summer. But the chock of reality might cost Ukraine much popular support for the war effort, both in the West and even within Ukraine.

It’s a bit ironic that Ukraine seems to repeat Russia’s underestimating of Ukrainian capabilities and willpower from February 2022.

The picture shows 42 video confirmed ukrainian losses the last days. Sorry for the disparaging figure, it came with the picture.

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1666662302140051458

@MikaelValterss1
NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA LATE NIGHT JUNE 8
It seems that the much awaited ukrainian counteroffensive has started. Since yesterday a number of waves with ukrainian units has attacked the russian positions south and southwest of Orikhiv. The fighting has been very hard but the ukrainian forces has made only minor gains and according to my russian sources there seems to have been heavy casualities on both sides, but especially on the ukrainian side. The russian MoD will probably claim several thousand killed ukrainians and 50-100 destroyed ukrainian combat vehicles later today. (NOTE Shoigu has claimed 30 tanks, 11 combat vehicles)

After several unsuccessfull assaults yesterday with limited artillery support the UkrAF spent a couple of hours long massive artillery barrage on the russian forward positions before resuming attacks during the night but to no avail. For the time being no attacks are ongoing, but large ukrainian formations are in position for resumed attacks. The attacks will probably resume in a couple of hours.

I believe the ukrainian side is disappointed with the lack of progress. They must break through not only the first russian defenceline but a large number of defencelines behind the first one. To achieve success the ukrainian side cannot spend many days with huge losses to break through each defenceline.

The coming three or four days might be some of the most important days in 2023 when it comes to the war. If UkrAF doesn’t succeed in breaking through the russian defences and suffer massive casualities during the attempts the summer offensive will be shortlived and a failure. If on the other side ukrainian forces do break through they have to take on the next defenceline and it’s starting over again. The only way Ukraine can achieve a significant success is if the russian forces collapse under pressure from the attacks and panic spreads. But that doesn’t seem likely at the moment.

Ukraine must get a significant success during the offensive to make it worth the costs. A failure will change the perception of the RuAF both in the West but also in the rest of the world. The likelihood of a ukrainian military victory will disappear. Pressure both within the western countries, but also from the west towards Ukraine, will increase on negotiations to solve the conflict. On the other hand a victoriousl Russia might want to go for a military victory instead of negotiations and use a ukrainian defeat for an major offensive.

For the time going I’m inclined to believe that the most likely outcome is a ukrainian defeat. They have no surprise or numerical superiotity and faces an enemy with superiority in artillery and air power who awaits them in well prepared fortifications. It looks a lot like the battle of Kursk in 1943. When the Third Reich throw all their reserves in an offensive against well prepared Soviet defences and used up all of their carefully gathered reserves during a couple of weeks, without any major success.