Posted on 05/18/2023 7:34:15 AM PDT by dennisw
This requires looking past China’s rhetoric about achieving broad technological dominance and recent provocations to focus on China’s economic concerns and desire to play a more assertive role in global diplomacy — for example, its success in helping normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and a proposal to end the conflict in Ukraine.
China won’t indefinitely accept a subordinate status to the West across leading-edge technologies. China already is out in front in battery technology, for example, but it will always need the West.
Neither China, the U.S., the EU nor Japan have large enough domestic markets to support the scale in R&D or monopoly on engineering talent to accomplish across-the-board technological dominance. Consider the multinational character of semiconductor supply chains and recent U.S. breakthroughs in battery technology.
China’s economy is too dependent on trade and its navy too formidable to be confined within the First Island Chain running from Kuril Islands through Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Taiwan carries strategic status as the manufacturer of more than 90% of the world’s most advanced computer chips. Capturing Taiwan would give the Chinese Navy a base of operations to push the overstretched U.S. Navy into subordinate status in the Western Pacific. China then would control the vital maritime lanes from Asia to the U.S. West Coast.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence is essential to American interests. Deterring an invasion from China will require arming Taiwan with the most sophisticated weapons and not permitting Beijing to become more confident by allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine.
The losses Russian forces are taking in the Ukraine should give China’s President Xi Jinping some pause, but the outcome is critical. Even if Russia manages to hold on to a piece of Ukraine in addition to Crimea, NATO has been hardened and expanded. Chinese provocations are causing a similar shoring up of U.S defense arrangements in the Pacific.
The long-term prospects for the Russian economy are poor, with its exodus of talent, closure of traditional markets for its oil and gas, and limited access to Western technology. Western sanctions and Ukrainian valor have forced Russia into dependency on China to sustain its economy and war effort.
But China needs good relations with Europe and a better image there. With Americans tightening controls on China’s access to U.S. technology and lobbying allies to do the same, Xi must cultivate Europe to assure continued access to western knowhow and broad foreign markets.
Yet significant majorities in Germany, France and most of Europe view China unfavorably. Consequently, Xi should see advantage in pressuring Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to deal. At the conclusion of his April meetings with Xi, French President Emmanuel Macron said, “I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and bring everybody to the negotiating table.” His critics notwithstanding, Macron may be spot on.
Accessing China’s leverage with Russia by bringing it into a five-sided process — the United States, Europe, U.K., Russia and the Ukraine — would permit Beijing to buff its global image by playing a constructive role in a high-stakes European security issue.
With the war in Ukraine resolved, the United States could then devote more resources to the Pacific and would be in a stronger position to negotiate with China to deescalate tensions. A deal would be terribly difficult — neither side is about to give up Taiwan — but both sides could accept naval parity and agree to curb their arms race.
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
“Maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence is essential to American interests.”
No it isn’t. We just need to build chip manufacturing plants to replace those in Taiwan. What these academics always neglect to mention is that half of the Taiwanese people are ok with the idea of being associated with China and aren’t interested with war with them. The Taiwanese saw what happened with Ukraine and want no part of that for themselves.
I swear that’s all you soulless neocons think about is who we can go to war with next in order to bully others into doing our bidding. We should be looking to create mutually beneficial relationships with other countries and stop trying to dominate them. The rest of the world is getting sick of these endless and immoral wars.
China is playing it both ways by making themselves look like the peacemakers when in reality, they are giddy like a school girl over Russia pouring more and more resources into Ukraine.
Russia’s entire eastern frontier is wide open, and the only thing currently stopping China from walking across the border and taking all of the natural resources east of the Urals is the possibility of having nukes lobbed at them.
“ A deal would be terribly difficult — neither side is about to give up Taiwan”
China cannot give up Taiwan.
They don’t have Taiwan and never did.
If Taiwan wanted to be part of China they would be. But they don’t as no one in their right mind would voluntarily put themselves under the authority of a one party dictatorship.
All appears to be the current situation, but he neglects the other side of the coin.
Russia glomed about 400,000 sq miles of Manchuria and the Chinese want it returned.
As Russia bleeds out they will come to terms.
As Russia stirs ferment in Europe it damages Chinese trade.
In the old MOB days, the cliche was “There is no percentage in murder”. Just break his leg and he will cough up some cash.
Notice that China now pays Russia in yuan. Not at all helpful to Russia.
Currently, China is purchasing oil from Russia CHEAP, and selling oil dear at the same time.
Arbitrage!
And keeping the price down that Russia receives.
Fungibility!
And the Russians cannot say no.
Taiwan watched how well the one country two systems pledge worked with Hong Kong. Beijing flushed whatever credibility it had on that deal down the toilet.
Yes. But Taiwan was never interested in 1C2S no matter what.
What happened to Hong Kong only underscored how right they are.
We really treat Taiwan like crap.
Much like Singapore, they may be ethnically Chinese but hardcore anti-Communist for good reason.
For oil, India is paying Russia in Rupees. That Russia cannot use.
_________________
Russia has accumulated billions of rupees that are sitting in Indian banks.
But Moscow acknowledged that it’s a problem and is looking to convert the rupees to another currency.
Russia has a trade imbalance with India, which has been a top buyer of Russian energy.
Russia has billions of rupees sitting in Indian banks but acknowledged there’s a problem as it looks for ways to convert that currency.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/russia-says-theres-a-problem-with-billions-of-rupees-it-has-in-india-that-need-to-be-converted/ar-AA1aNs5U
From your link; interesting.
“India won’t pay Russia in US dollars over concerns that it may face secondary sanctions and won’t pay in rubles because of worries about obtaining Russia’s currency on global markets at a fair rate, sources told Bloomberg last month.”
—”What these academics always neglect to mention is that half of the Taiwanese people are ok with the idea of being associated with China and aren’t interested with war with them.”
Where did you ever get that idea?
I spent a lot of time in Taiwan, a beautiful place but for the traffic. Very nice people and great food!
You would be hard-pressed to find many that want to be part of China.
Until the end of WWII, Taiwan was part of Japan.
Some polls show only 1.5% favor the PRC!!!
Th majority favors keeping the status quo and only 25% want complete independence. A high % of Taiwanese actually commute to work on the mainland or have other economic ties with the mainland. Of course they would prefer to keep their independence like any other country, but it’s questionable as to how much of a fight they are willing to put of to maintain that independence. The Taiwanese aren’t anywhere near as stupid as the Ukrainians and don’t want their country destroyed in the process of another proxy war for the US.
—”Partner, I do not understand why the Chicoms want to represent Taiwan.”
A salient point for me is:
“Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Most are manufactured by a single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC).”
https://t.ly/-LJ4
“Russia will never be a first-rate power without a capable, innovative and commercially-oriented semiconductor industry”
From Aug 2022
https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/russias-chips-failure-coming-home-to-roost/
A good example is the lack of modern equipment in its aircraft and ground equipment. Russian tanks are operating without active protection systems, making them vulnerable to relatively cheap anti-tank weapons in Ukraine. Russian aircraft are flying without GPS mapping systems and some of them even lack ground targeting systems.
Most modern weapon systems require the very best semiconductors.
Without the means of production, you are an also-ran, at best.
China is a ways off from producing any top-level chips.
Also, China has many economic stumbling issues, and bold talk about acquiring Taiwan might(?) pump up the populace.
“ a part of China for only four (1945-1949) and has been independent since.”
Yes. But legally in fact part of Japan until the San Francisco Peace Treaty went in to effect in 1952.
ROC administered Taiwan for the Allies under General Order No. 1.
Technically correct just as the Southern Kuriles (the islands of Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and the Habomais) are still LEGALLY part of Japan and the United States recognizes them as such even though the Russians have occupied them since the closing days of World War II and has never signed a peace treaty with Japan as a result.
You’re seriously ignorant and misinformed.
At least I hope it’s that and you’re not just a Chicom propagandist.
Well you are apparently one of those soulless neocons I was referring to, so it’s not exactly surprising you wouldn’t agree with me. And as far as me being ignorant I’d me happy to compare my level of education to yours any day.
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