Victory Cult: Putin Under Time Pressure

Europe’s Edge, CEPA ^ | April 30, 2023 | Edward Lucas

[familyop]

Ukraine can afford to wait before launching its offensive. But Russia is in a hurry.

Ticktock goes the Kremlin clock. May 9th is looming, the militaristic highlight of Russia’s official calendar. The armed forces will goosestep across Red Square, while fearsome weapons systems, some of them usable, will trundle over the cobblestones.

The bombast celebrates the epoch-defining victory over Nazi Germany 78 years ago. More recent triumphs are harder to find; in the Ukraine war, Russia’s most serious military engagement since 1991, they are wholly absent. The sole bright spot lately has been the growth of Russian influence in Africa, spearheaded by the guns-for-hire Wagner Group. But that motley crew of mercenaries is unlikely to prompt a full-throated “Ura!” echoing off the Kremlin’s rose-red walls.

Nor is the Wagner Group’s boss cheering the Russian armed forces and their leaders. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s latest assessment of their performance in Ukraine is scathing. “We’ve turned the Russian army – the second army in the world – into what? Who the hell knows… What kind of army are we if we couldn’t even manage with teensy-weensy Ukraine?”

“It’s a complete mess everywhere, there’s no discipline. The army has everything, but there is absolutely no control, while there is an absolute paranoid gap between what is happening in the trenches, and what they know and think about in headquarters.”

The result: “Russia is on the brink of catastrophe… We need to stop deceiving the population and telling them that everything is fine.”

True, Prigozhin has his own agenda. He wants more ammunition for his men, embroiled in the lengthy and so far fruitless assault on the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut. He may harbor greater ambitions: he describes fears that Wagner Group, if better supplied, might turn its guns on the Russian leadership as “interesting” — hardly a clarion call of loyalty.

But his outburst highlights an important point. Western attention over-focuses on Ukrainian decision-making. When will the offensive start? What will it prioritize? Are the stocks and training sufficient? Has the cost of defending Bakhmut been disproportionate? What is the definition of success? What will be the consequences of failure, real or perceived? These are all good questions, and it is true that Russian military setbacks will be the best boost for Western resolve. It is also true that answers to these questions should take account of the broader picture. If the West had done more, earlier, the strategic calculus would be different. Providing fighter aircraft would change it now.

The much harder question, though, concerns the Kremlin’s decision-making. Has Vladimir Putin lost his grip? Have demands for victory by May 9th made Russian generals reckless? Is Prigozhin right about Russian morale? What is the effect of the recent attacks (presumably by Ukrainian drones) on the fuel storage tanks in Sevastopol? Remember: Ukraine does not need to reconquer Crimea, at least at this stage. It just needs to make life there unattractive for the civilian Russian population. The great peninsular trophy of 2014 then becomes a hostage.

Reporting on these issues is hard; Russia is an increasingly closed society. Western journalists inside Russia risk imprisonment, and so do their sources. It is much easier to write about Ukraine.

But headlines are not deadlines. Ukraine’s forces are becoming ever-stronger, better trained, and equipped. Russia is experiencing (to put it mildly) some disagreements over strategy. If Prigozhin is right, their plight is worse than that.

Kyiv and Moscow are not just in different time zones; their decision-makers operate at a different tempo. Putin, a prisoner of his own propaganda, is in a hurry. Ukrainians, confident of victory, are not. So, set your watches according to the clocks in Kyiv. They tell the time right.

[familyop]

Related... T-54/T-55 tanks were designed between 1947 and 1958.

Russians Transfers T-54 And T-55 to Ukraine: the Tanks Spotted In the South

Defense Express
May 1, 2023

The transfer of T-54 and T-55 tanks of the russian army continues and allows to assess the pace of their delivery and the terms of crew training

Several screenshots with the transportation of T-54/T-55 tank, as well as T-62M on trawls appeared on the Internet with the indication that the photos had been taken in Berdyansk Oblast.

However, Defense Express notes that it has not yet been possible to precisely localize the location and confirm or deny the claims about the area.

At the same time, the appearance of such photos can be quite valuable from the point of view of the pace of recovery and transfer of these vehicles to the front line. In particular, information about taking the T-54 and T-55 from storage in russia appeared on March 22. In mid-April, photos appeared of the possible training ground where crews were being trained for these tanks.

And now, April 30 can be considered as the date when the vehicles were already spotted during the transer closer to the front line. Thus, a period of roughly five weeks can be considered as the time devoted for training starting from the moment when the first T-55s were spotted until these days, which is a rather short period.

Defense Express notes that earlier in the southern regions of Ukraine, the transfer of Rapira 100-mm anti-tank guns was also observed. But we note that the construction of an anti-tank defense consisting of them sometimes ends up predictably.

[Tom Tetroxide]

“...embroiled in the lengthy and so far fruitless assault on the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut.”

Fruitless??? Capturing 94% of Bakhmut is now considered “fruitless”? LOL!

Just another Western propaganda piece.

[Kazan]

This completely ass backward is just about everything else you post on the subject. It's one lie after another to try to keep the money laundering operation in Ukraine going.

This war is war of attrition. Russia has a huge advantage in being able to manufacturing ammo and missiles. It's had a 10-1 in ammo fired.

Ukraine is running low on manpower, ammo and missiles for its air defense. That's why any objective analyst knows that the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive might not even take place but, if it does, it's Ukraine last stand, the equivalent of Hail Mary in a football game.

[TheConservativeTejano]

Partner, Its long past due any settlement on this conflict by that sick Ruskie Pukin Putin.

[Salohcin]

10 to 1? If you are going to make up numbers why didn’t you call it 100 to 1 or even 1000 to 1? Those would be even more impressive ratios, don’t you think? 😂😂😂

[Kazan]

You're a joke. You utterly clueless of what's happening the war because all you do is listen to and believe the propaganda from the Biden regime.

There is nothing more annoying than an arrogant idiot. You're literally bragging about having ass backward. It's amazing.

The Ukrainian soldiers on the ground, you moron, have given interviews stating at what a disadvantage they are because of the lopsided advantage the Russians have in ammo fired.

Rent a brain.

[Salohcin]

Whatever tovarich, just keep repeating your Kremlin propaganda if it makes you happy.🤷‍♂️

[familyop]

On "time pressure..."

Russian military universities speed up officer graduation dates
Ukrainian Military Center
30 April, 2023

Russian military educational institutions have begun graduating officers earlier than usual.

On April 29, the 112th graduation of officers took place in the capital of the Amur Region, on the square of the Far Eastern Higher Combined Arms Command School.

Among the graduates were officers of the special faculty who completed training in several specialties, including the use of motorized rifle and tank units.

Graduates of the school gained practical experience during military internships, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, adjusting artillery fire, and the organization and work order of the unit commander on the battlefield.

Next, Russian officers will be sent to various military districts of the Russian Armed Forces.

In recent years, this military institution has been holding officers’ graduations at the end of July.

Officially, the reasons for early graduation from military educational institutions were not specified. In 2022, the graduation ceremony took place on July 23, in 2021 – on July 24.

On April 29, the early 142nd graduation of officers and the 16th graduation of ensigns took place at the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School.

Video:
У РФ почали достроково випускати офіцерів
https://youtu.be/ub_FGiT_I2Y

Usually, the graduation of Russian paratroopers from military educational institutions is held at the end of June.

It is reported that the first officers’ graduation of the lieutenants will be reduced by half – they are needed for the formation of new landing brigades for the war against Ukraine.

As previously reported, in April, Putin signed amendments to the law “On Military Duty and Military Service” introducing electronic summonses.

The law provides for a unified register of Russian conscripts, and also restricts the rights of Russian citizens who refuse to appear at the military commissariat upon receiving a summons.

[webheart]

What a ridiculous line of reasoning.

[nickfrost1]

After reading this article it is good to see this video. Just for a balance of views.

https://youtu.be/-v3PRfMOITQ

[Firehath]

drag queen nato

will keep

the ruskies going

[alexander_busek]

[...] in the Ukraine war, Russia’s most serious military engagement since 1991 [...]

Huh?!

Try, "...since 1945!"

Regards,

[alexander_busek]

Russia has a huge advantage over NATO in being able to manufacturing ammo and missiles.

Is that what you're claiming?!

Seriously?!

Regards,

[Tom Tetroxide]

If you think Putin is sick, just take a look at our political leaders in the District of Criminals. Putin has nothing on them.

[Justa]

Stalin and Zhukov would have been in Warsaw by now!

[Kazan]

That’s why Putin isn’t either one. He only cares about protecting the ethnic Russian population in what used to be Ukraine from genocide and protecting Russia from NATO aggression.

[TheConservativeTejano]

If you think Putin is sick, just take a look at our political leaders in the District of Criminals. Putin has nothing on them.

Partner, we know this and Obama just keeps calling the shots illegally for Biden.

It is simply amazing!

One thing we know for sure is that Biden stole the election in 2020 and we know this for a fact.

That stoopid Doosh Bag of a VP Pence should have backed up the President and now he will be toast for any elective office.

It looks like the states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are uncertifiable for Biden and Trump easily won those states.

The Rooskies just ought to agree to go back to the original borders like it was before the Pukin Putin ordered the Rooskies to go across the border.

The Pukin Putin is acting more or more like a Nazi!!!

[Tom Tetroxide]

I wish people could decide whether he’s a Commie or a Nazi.