Posted on 04/28/2023 4:52:46 PM PDT by delta7
With each passing day, the Ukrainian Army is being carved up and decimated in Bakhmut. To use a cinematic metaphor, this is a preview of the coming attraction, with Ukraine facing intense pressure to launch a counter offensive that will push the Russians out of Ukraine. Ain’t going to happen.
Take a look at the following video. Yes, it is but one isolated anecdotal account of the slaughter in Bakhmut, but it rings true and provides a chilling picture of the desperate state of Ukrainian forces in that battle..
Even If Ukraine is able to scrounge up troops and vehicles that surpass anything the Russians have in place on the front-lines in the Donbass (a dubious assumption), it still lacks the artillery, air support, logistics and ammunition to sustain such an attack.
How do I know? Very simple. Just look at how Ukraine currently is performing in Bakhmut, Ugledar, and Avdevka. In every case, Ukrainian forces are retreating, albeit slowly, rather than blunting the Russian offensive. The following image (taken from liveuamap.com, a pro-Ukrainian site) shows the harrowing situation the Ukrainian troops confront.
Ukraine, which in theory should have an advantage by fighting from defensive positions, has failed to stop the slow but steady advance of Russian troops all along the line of contact. Instead of attacking and destroying Russian lines of communications that supply the Russian forces, Ukraine is launching artillery and HIMARS missile strikes on civilian targets. Those attacks do nothing to weaken Russia’s tactical and strategic situation.
The seven blue circles visible on the map signify locations where air raid warnings are sounding on April 25. This means the Russians hitting these sites with fixed wing aircraft to deliver 500 kg glide bombs and explosive laden drones. The effect is devastating for the Ukrainians on the receiving end.
These strikes also confirm the assessment contained in one of the leaked pieces of U.S. intelligence that Ukraine’s air defense system (ADS) has been destroyed and Ukraine lacks a layered ADS to fend off Russian attacks. Russian military sources claim they are inflicting an average of 500 fatalities on the Ukrainian troops. In other words, in the last 60 days the Ukrainians have suffered at least 30,000 KIA across the 950 km front. Ukraine does not have a limitless supply of manpower.
No amount of happy talk in Washington or the capitals of other NATO countries alters the dire tactical situation confronting Ukraine. If you look at the changes on the liveuamap during the last six months, it is Russia, not Ukraine, that is relentlessly attacking all along the line of contact. Russia is conducting a brutal war of attrition and Ukraine is willingly sending irreplaceable forces into the maw of destruction. How is Ukraine going to mount a credible counter offensive without adequate air support, an exhausted air defense system, a weakened tank force, shortages of artillery and missiles that cannot be readily replaced and a chaotic logistics system that is failing to keep front-line troops fully supplied with ammunition, fuel and food?
Ukraine’s prospects are made more grim by the realization that Russia, during the last six months, has built layered defense systems along likely avenues of attack, stepped up its use of fixed wing aerial attacks on Ukrainian mobilization positions and kept massive trained reserves off the front lines. Russia is not behaving like an overly confident number 1 seed in the NCAA Basketball tournament. The Russian General Staff realize they are in an existential fight with NATO and are not engaging in premature victory celebrations. Russia is prepared for the long haul. However, Ukraine is not.
The leaders in Kiev are behaving like depraved junkies, totally dependent on the willingness of the West to keep sending money and weapons. But there is a problem. The United States and NATO have exhausted their stocks of weapons and ammunition and do not have the industrial base in place to quickly produce replacements. Ukrainian confidence in victory is no substitute for a fully supplied and trained army. Lack of supplies and raw recruits with minimal basic training is a recipe for catastrophe.
There is only one fact about the upcoming offensive you can take to the bank. Many thousands of innocent Uke and Russian boys will die for nothing, again, in this totally unnecessary quagmire.
It makes zero sense to support any entanglement with Biden in the White Hut and woke generals in the Pentagon. One guaranteed outcome: failure and lots of needlessly killed and wounded.
China is now using Chinese names for cities in the Russian far east. It seems to me that the good people in Beijing got the memo that Russia is a paper tiger that can’t even beat Ukraine after 15 months of a three day war
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384
I’ll give you one clear example where Larry is full of crap. Russia started it’s assault on Bakhmut in May 2022. It is April 2023, and Russia is still fighting, trying to control Bakhmut. I would say that is a pretty solid blunting of the offensive.
Ukraine may be screwed, not because their cause isn’t just, not because they aren’t willing or able to fight, but because the US and Nato and W.EU are paper tigers and can’t even keep sending artillery shells because we can’t make them anymore.
God help us if we get entangled in China.
Fighting in Bakhmunt is stupid. The Russians are entrenched there. And the war of attrition favors them.
The metric I’ve been looking at to gauge the potential of a Ukrainian offensive is the performance of their S-300 air defense systems in play. Russia is CHEWING them up near the front lines so they will be a negligible factor. ON THE FRONTS, Russia will thus have air superiority so Ukrainian attempts at offense will be doomed to catastrophic failure, That is, of course, IMHO.
LOL Even though the Ukrainians have never had that many troops in Bakhmut, the Russians have been incapable of surrounding it or finishing taking the city in 10 months of assaults.
For all we know China might be a paper tiger too. They have lots of human fodder and lots of ‘made in China’ hardware but they have never fought a real war.
Did you know the head of Wagner, Prigozhin stated his losses have been 5 to 1?
I guess he is in charge of Ukrainian propaganda?
Interestingly, Americans have long been using using Chinese Names for Jao Bi Dun and Family because Xi and the Communist Chinese owned Bi Dun long before Bi Dun started harvesting Uke Nazis.
The NO LONGER Useful Idiot Uke Nazis.
They will die because our Congress has money to hide.
You are such a good little cheerleader for Joe Baidung.
Let’s hope not.
The EU has driven Russia away from Kiev, out of Kherson and out of Kharkiv where it chased Ivan across the landscape to the very border of the Luhansk “Republic”. It’s defeat of Russia at Vuledhar was brutal and the EU’s Ukrainian ground pounders in Bakhmut have pretty much destroyed the Wagner mercenaries.
So, this offensive may or may not fail. Only way to know is to sit back, wait and watch.
“There is only one fact about the upcoming offensive you can take to the bank. Many thousands of innocent Uke and Russian boys will die for nothing, again, in this totally unnecessary quagmire.”
What an absurd comment. Ukrainians fighting to defend their homeland is not unnecessary; it is what people have done throughout history. By your logic, it is unnecessary to fight to protect your home and family from intruders who intend death and destruction.
It’s been ugly and going to get worse, taking back “the south” may work or it may fail. I know the will to fight is on the side of the Ukraine and it appears they will fight to the last man where the poor bastards in the Russian units for the most part just want to go home. If the Ukrainian troops can cut the russian supply lines they have a reasonable chance of pulling this off!
You got to know when to hold ‘em, and know when to fold ‘em.
Zelensky should have capitulated one year and 100,000 lives ago… Ukraine never stood a chance, regardless of how much NATO and Vicky Nuland fluffed them.
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