The next opportunity for negotiations comes after the uke counter offensive.
If the rus can hold off the uke counter offensive—then their chances of holding more territory increases. anti war opposition in the west increases
If the ukes break through the rus lines —then its a matter of where the rus can stop the ukes. the more territory the what effect? Rus may opt for the forever war.
For now there is no end to it. There is no war weariness on either side which has to precede any end. And it could go on for a long time—like the lebanese wars.
Kissenger made detante with the chinese to put pressure on the russians in the 70’s. The deep state got Nixon thrown out for that. Trump was trying to do the inverse of that. He was trying to make detente with the Russians to put pressure on the chinese. the US state dept, the washington establishment and the dems—killed that idea.
The above scenario shows the broken symetry.
Hard to know now what happens.
dems are positioning themselves to steal 2024. I don’t see any sign the repubicans even understand what’s going on.
“For now there is no end to it. There is no war weariness on either side”
Good analysis. Wars are not truly won and lost by armies. They are lost when one side gives up the will to fight.
90% of Ukrainians and 70% of Russians are still gung ho for this fight. After one year nothing that has happened has changed that.
Sadly this will be a long fight.