Due to the red-state, blue-state divisions, I don’t think we’ll see a margin like Reagan’s again. In other words, Trump in ‘24 will get more electoral votes than either Mondale’s 13 or Carter’s 49.
The combination of Trump and abortion will result in more like the margins of Clinton in ‘92 or ‘96 where George HW Bush got 168 and Dole got 159. The Clinton Dole election also raises the issue of will there be a third party Ross Perot candidate?
I see Trump beating the Demo by 100 EVs. Maybe more.