Regarding the war itself, I don’t see NATO borders as magical lines: if Putin succeeds here, he’ll go after the Baltics or Poland next. And allowing all of Europe’s wealth and technical know-how to join with Russia and China cannot possibly be in US interests, so the US should act to see that Russia gains nothing from this war so it won’t be tempted to try again any time soon.
An earlier post you said “Russia doesn’t have the gloves to take off. It’s simply incapable. Look at Russian aviation. Being unable to overcome UA air defense, they have to fly low and slow, which limits the range and number of bases from which they can operate and leaves them vulnerable to MANPADS. Plus the wear and tear on aging airframes, maintenance issues, etc., seriously reduce the number of sorties. Ground troops lack sufficient mobility and above all training, making them unable to adapt to changing circumstances. This has improved over the course of the war, but recent losses at Vuhledar and Aavdivka suggest not by much.
Putin simply does not have Stalin’s ability to coerce new divisions into existence. Russia’s political weakness also hamstrings its operations because Putin cannot call up troops from the major metropolitan areas of Moscow and St. Petersburg because of fear of the political fallout. The Russian government is also wracked by internal political struggles with possibly deadly consequences for the higher ups. Shoigu’s daughter and her family are cooling their heels in the UAE for a reason. Not exactly a vote of confidence in the system. Like Hitler, Putin plays favorites and sets commanders against one another and gives orders impossible or destructive to fulfill.”
Which is it? They can’t be that worthless and at the same time be a threat to take over all of Europe.
Time frame. Even if there is a ceasefire or some negotiated peace later this year, if there aren’t real security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia will just rebuild its military and try again. If it wins this war, the political ramifications in Europe will be great and it will rebuild its forces and try to grab the Baltics. To be deterred from future aggression Russia needs to be sufficiently defeated that it won’t try again for a long time if ever. That means basically gaining nothing from this war.