“Scorched earth, meatgrinder warfare, waged by Russia in Ukraine (which the US didn’t wage in Iraq), is meant to stop unending guerilla wars...”
History disagrees with you.
The thing about guerilla war and irregular war is that they don’t end until their aims are achieved; that’s why — once there is commitment — such wars can last for decades. Russia has always faced such wars after “liberating” some country that didn’t want to be liberated. Most imperialist countries face such resistance, and the resistance usually ends up winning in the long run.
When the Red Army liberated the Donbass, Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa, etc. from the Nazis, they received cheers and gifts from those who were in hiding. When the Red Army liberated Bukovina, Galicia and Volhynia, the people stayed in hiding. Thereafter, CIA funding flowed into Bukovina, Galicia and Volhynia to keep the hatred going. So if you are analyzing how to conduct ongoing destabilization operations after the end of the SMO your first error is assuming Ukraine as it was constituted as of the 2014 coup enjoyed a homogenious nationality where all parts will offer up recruits with enough hatred to be radicalized. The other factor you seem to underappreciate is how the social media surveillance state has the ability to identify radicalized influences. This capability will only increase as ai becomes more a part of civilian communication networks. I disagree if you think that guerilla war or asymmetric war will be effective, especially after the Bukovina, Galicia and Volhynia elements are “demilitarized.”
“Russia has always faced such wars after “liberating” some country that didn’t want to be liberated. Most”
General Georgy Zhukov once remaked about the Germans “”We have liberated them, and they will never forgive us for that”.