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Sweater Man has not figured it out yet but Putty has. Russia is sitting on a reinforced line in the Southeast while Sweater Man thrusts his ill trained troops to sure death while begging for more cash and weapons. Once the West quits funding this war Sweater Man will take his hoard of cash and flee. This is not about protecting his country this is about profit till the spigot runs dry.

Thinking your analysis is pretty close to spot on.

Europe has depleted much of their already thin stockpiles of functional weapons and much of what remains is in disrepair.

Seems that Putin was not the only world leader who has learned to their chagrin that that which on the inventory lists many be in the optimum state of readiness

The US has already given about all it can give in both military and financial aid without seriously compromising our our own national security. Worse the Biden Admin has been throwing taxpayer money around at an alarming rate. It's hard to see how we can can continue to prop up the Ukraine governments payroll and fund it's entire it's pension system when we are spending on covid bailouts, welfare, housing and medical care for 5 million illegal alien "refugees" who have crossed the border in the last 2 years, green energy subsidies, DEI programs, tranny transition surgery and drug therapies, bank bailouts, fiscally counter productive and insane " inflation subsidies", Build Back Better and the rest of the rest of the massive counter productive funding misallocations of the Biden Era.

It's also not obvious that the Ukraine has spent the blank check the US and NATO has gifted them wisely and in the most productive fashion. In fact, much of the support has been stolen in graft and corruption ( much of which is kick backs to well connected US and NATO politicians and their grifter kids, entourages and cronies) wasted and/or blown through in indisciminant, spendthrift use of expensive and hard to replace smart weapons and just plain outright fraud.

This conflict is a disaster and it needs to be shut down via a negotiated settlement ASAP. If it continues, support of the feckless Western powers will be withdrawn, the betrayed Ukraine resistance will collapse and a demoralized NATO will be facing a victorious Russian Army on the borders of what once was the Ukraine.