Posted on 03/10/2023 8:39:13 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A fascinating new report in Nikkei Asia has unearthed and detailed the findings of an elite Chinese state-linked think tank which reports directly to the People's Liberation Army. Nikkei in the context of examining the timing and motives behind China's 12-point peace plan said that Chinese military experts are predicting the Russia-Ukraine war will end this summer.
To review, the 12-point plan urged implementation of a ceasefire and the resumption of negotiations toward a permanent peaceful settlement, and was unveiled on the one-year Feb.24 anniversary of the war. But the Nikkei report asserts there's specific rationale driving Beijing: "The reason for China's sudden change can be traced back to a report issued two months earlier by a top think tank in Beijing."
"The Academy of Military Sciences [AMS] reports directly to the People's Liberation Army," Nikkei continues. "Although it cannot be found on a map, the institution is located in Beijing's Haidian district, which itself is home to the ruins of Yuanmingyuan, a palace destroyed by Western armies in the 19th century."
The report goes on the detail how central and important the AMS is as a military think tank (a kind of 'Chinese Rand Corporation' in terms of influence), issuing recommendations directly to the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, which is the PLA's top decision-making body.
And here's where the Nikkei report gets most interesting...
In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said.
It is possible that the results were skewed in favor of Russia to please China's Moscow-leaning leadership. But coincidentally, the $45 billion aid package passed last December in the U.S. is set to expire this summer too.
It should also be noted that Republican leadership in the GOP-dominated House has vowed to reign in the "blank check" approach to Ukraine, also amid even the Biden administration recently giving signals that the aid won't last forever. But, the consensus among Pentagon leadership has been that the Ukraine war could drag on for years.
Nikkei says that the think tank simulation led to the peace proposal gaining momentum in the halls of power in Beijing. "After hearing the AMS' prediction, Beijing crafted a peace proposal in time for the one-year anniversary of the war," the report reads. "It aims to achieve three goals, including the restoration of relations with Europe." These can be briefly summarized as follows:
Should President Xi Jinping accept Putin's recent invitation to travel to Moscow, all of these things will be in play in what will be a highly watched visit, with Western governments closely scrutinizing every word to come out of it.
Some pundits have seen a major power like China getting involved in dialogue as crucial to kicking off real momentum...
The gruesome war continues unabated with huge numbers of young Ukrainian and Russian men dead. Yet, no calls for peace negotiations from our leaders! Only China has put forward a proposal for starting negotiations, which the US and EU immediately shot downhttps://t.co/LtImXuOXoD — Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 10, 2023
Even though Washington quickly rejected that Beijing is honest player when it comes to peace, the most surprising reaction came from Kiev itself, it should be recalled:
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has cautiously welcomed China’s peace plan to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but said it would be acceptable only if it led to Vladimir Putin pulling his troops out from all occupied Ukrainian territory.
Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv to mark the first anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale attack, the Ukrainian president said he "wanted to believe" Beijing was interested in a "fair peace". That meant not "supplying weapons to Russia", he said, adding: "I’m doing my best to prevent that from happening. This is priority number one."
Moscow, as well as a few analysts in the West, have accused the United States and United Kingdom of seeking to sabotage peace. This is why the US and UK will likely remain cold regarding any Chinese efforts at a serious and lasting peace.
And Nikkei too comments, "If China fails at becoming a peacemaker, the ramifications would undermine Xi's authority and prestige. It remains to be seen if the current leadership filled with Xi loyalists will be capable of a feat that requires complex negotiating skills and tenacious fortitude." Again, this is all the more reason for Washington hawks to want to quash Beijing's efforts before they even get off the ground. But another prime question will be is how much sway will Xi hold with Putin when it comes to Ukraine?
Its as valid as any of the other projections I have read
Very Possible. If not on the mark—close.
As I’ve said from day one. We have been blundered into a position where our best case scenario is a new generational, multi trillion dollar Cold War in Eastern Europe. That is pretty much what the Chicoms are predicting.
Nikkei is crap.
Good to hear, I’m completely sick of this war. But now that the Neocons have driven China into Russia’s arms, Russia will not have to worry about being supplied with weapons, and so the Neocons will have to find other wars to start.
Maybe some day I’ll figure out the Neocon strategy - first starting the Ukraine War and then making sure that Russia has all the weapons they need from China (thanks to their Taiwan policy).
RE: Nikkei is crap.
How so?
OTOH, if Russia is economically wrecked, militarily drained by a long war, and under sanctions leveraged by 80% of the world’s GDP for the next 20 years, China won’t have much of a partner...
Rule #1: China’s motives are ALWAYS suspect.
I’m also curious about that $45 billion in aid running out this summer, because according to when we say we’ll be able to send some of the weapons systems and so on, and seeing the slow drip so far, the bulk of it won’t even be sent by then. Then there is the financial aid from Europe, which is greater than the US’ financial aid, and so far as I know, that doesn’t just suddenly chop off either.
Still, if China’s position is that Russia has to go back at least to the recognized boundaries as of 2/1/2022, I’m good with most of their proposal — I’m just not sure how it would ever be enforced.
Leftist pro-Chicom stance.
Who copy-edits this cr*p?
Regards,
So I guess China is going to cut off arms shipments to Russia this summer?
The war will only end when Russia leaves all the territory it invaded.
There is no scenario where Russia wins.
Ukrainians did not fight, die and suffer only to give Russia everything it wants and in the process reward Russia for its invasion and in the process signal to every other country in the world that the post WW2 peace is over and its now AOK to invade your neighboring country.
There is no scenario where Russia wins.
Ukrainians did not fight, die and suffer only to give Russia everything it wants and in the process reward Russia for its invasion and in the process signal to every other country in the world that the post WW2 peace is over and its now AOK to invade your neighboring country.
I hate to break it to you, but if you look over at Korea, that might give you a clue as to how Russia loses.
Then it's on to Moldova and then the Baltics for Putin's minions.
Poland should be the one worrying about now. Nice people, freedom loving etc... just hampered by bad geography.
Then again they certainly have plans on Taiwan, so this could just be a show. Weak US president and loss of arms and cash in Ukraine
Moldova, Georgia and Kosovo are on deck while USAID is prepping Hungary.
I read the ChiCom proposals when they first were posted. The one aspect that struck me as interesting was a proposal regarding use of agricultural lands. This war has severely damaged Ukraines prospects for grain production, and it hasn’t helped Russias prospects. This has caused worldwide problems, especially for third world countries. China needs grain to maintain production of chicken and pigs. Without this protein, the Chinese army is not well fed and also unhappy. So it is in Chinese interest to get Ukraine and Russia growing and shipping grain again. Other proposals did not seem particularly helpful to Ukraine.
I am glad Zelenskyy is sticking to damanding pre 2014 borders. Ukraine must not lose its petro and coal resource areas as was Putin’s goal for invading Crimea and the East in 2014. I’m not sure when China thinks it is going to meet with Putin in Moscow as Putin has been in Sochi for more than a week presumably for cancer chemo. Any new info on that situation? There is a minority of Pubs who do NOT favor continued aid to Ukraine. The question is whether they have enough influence to outvote pro Ukraine Pubs and Dems?
Many in both parties can see the advantage of letting Ukraine use our defense money to weaken Russia as a military force. In addition this war has provided increased business for US LNG and military products. Poland has decided to devote 4% of GDP to military and is buying a lot from the US in the way of heavy armaments. If our MIC can get it’s ashes in gear, there will be a lot of money coming into the use to improve our trade balance. Currently the strong US dollar has discouraged some purchases in US, but military necessity is a strong motivator for European business.
Good point.
An interesting factor in all this is the whack a mole of Russian war ambitions.
How many totally disconnected motives have they articulated in the last 10 years?
NATO expansion - red herring; no country that’s joined NATO since the late 90s has expressed an iota of malice in Moscow’s direction.
Europeanisation - red herring because Russia had a seat on the EU Council, and had turned down closer ties to Europe. If it had been less hostile it could’ve been a reinforcer of eastern Europe against France and Germany, rather than a noisy, butthurt bad neighbor.
Nazis? Dozens of ‘em! The easiest way to address that was, leave it to Ukraine and don’t try to assassinate Yuschenko, don’t invade Georgia, don’t wave Z flags or the hammer and sickle, and don’t flood the Donbas with fake separatists.
Beach Front Property from Mariupol to Transnistria. Yay Lebensraum.
Grain? All their hopes lie in the famine. Nice way to signpost how Stalin’s mentality still thrives.
Mineral rights? So, it’s really just an asset grab.
Make Russia great again... What do they mean by “again” - or “great”? They are a glorified gas station with half the country living in third world conditions, and the other half stuck in a militaristic paranoid time warp, so what’s the sell?
If Russia had even one convincing argument for war, they’d stick to it.
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