That’s a very interesting article.
The “two year” prediction is itself predicated on Russian losses continuing at about their present rate.
I doubt that is going to happen. The USA is ramping up Excalibur production.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xniod2kwET0
If we have any sense at all, the Ukies will get some of the M777ER version too. (43 mile range.)
Once the GLSDB’s arrive in decent numbers, Russia’s logistics losses are going to go through the roof.
Of course, all this depends on how low the Russians are willing to let their reserves get.
Colonel Paulavičius says something else very interesting:
“Lithuania’s intelligence services said sanctions had not harmed Russia’s ability to fund its military as it redirects resources to them from public welfare.”
Well, turn that around — that means Russia is already having to pull rubles from the “butter” side of its budget. And the real budget crunch is yet to come.
How long will the pensioners put up with how much of this?
According to Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Yale School of Management, no one knows what the real state of the Russian economy is since they stopped reporting key indicators the second quarter of 2022. No one is trading in Rubles either. All the numbers about the Russian economy come from Russia with no ability to verify any of it. When the IMF and World Bank talk about the Russian economy, they are talking about Russian numbers, not their own. All the Russian economic numbers are made up. The observed effects on the Russian economy are automobile production is down 99% and the Russian military is stripping computer chips out of refrigerators. Russian economy is on par with Chile and they are at best breaking even on energy sales.
After one year, Russian economy is where Germany and Japan were at the end of World War II, when the US and Europe are still warming up in the batter's box. China and India can not bail Russia out, the pipeline infrastructure is not there and neither of them want to antagonize the US and Europe simultaneously. Buying oil and natural gas at the sanction rate is just fine with them.