Posted on 03/09/2023 4:42:19 PM PST by Nextrush
More likely, Russia just fired its months supply of longer ranged missiles in one massed attack to break through air defenses. Their problem is, they have used up a lot of weapons by now and have few Kinzhal air launched ballistic missiles. Between attacks, it gives time for Ukraine to rebuild and improve air defenses.
This has gone on for six months, and Russia has little to show for it. Russia simply lacks the ability to really hurt Ukraine through massed missile strikes. The decreasing frequency or small salvo size per strike shows Russia is using up its stocks of weapons it can not easily replace.
The attacks also show, Russia can not use cruise or ballistic weapons on significant battlefield targets. No cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian munition depots, artillery sites, command posts, and nothing to support Wagner in Bakhmut at all.
Then why do the Lithuanian secret services say Russia can keep this going for two more years...
Ah, so now you include the whole lot of you as vastly overstating the depletion of US weapons inventories?
I mean, generally I don’t lump isolationists or those who are simply mad because Trump got screwed in 2020, with actual pro-Pooty posters, but if you insist...
Now, make no mistake - I would not be shocked if 10% of the financial aid to Ukraine in 2022 got siphoned off by corruption. But at least the bulk of that aid was from the Euros, not us. And the mere fact that the Ukies have not collapsed tells me most of that aid is going where intended.
Weapons - there just isn’t any reliable info. to prove much if any of the big expensive stuff sent is being stolen and resold. Maybe 2-3% overall of the weapons are? More would show. I mean, what do you do in a situation like this, with a stolen Bradley? Drive it to Romania and try to hawk it? Are you kidding?
It’s war, you have losses, those are so far acceptable, and the mood in the US House of Rep. seems to be to add some watchfulness, which I support. Minimizing losses, to make the entire operation of stopping Putin more efficient, is a good thing. :-)
Stay in your lane, Paulie.
The head of the Lithuanian intelligence services is Elegijus Paulavicius. Lets see what else he said (translated):
"The commander of the Lithuanian military intelligence, Colonel Elegijs Paulavičius , says that Russia has the resources to continue the war of the same intensity against Ukraine for at least another 2 years. The director of the Second Department of Operational Services spoke about this during the presentation of the assessment of threats to national security to both Lithuanian intelligence institutions."The current intensity is down from when the invasion started. Russia can sustain its operations because it built so much. Now they are bringing T-62s back into service, when Russia stopped producing them in 1975. That was 48 years ago. Russia is refurbishing old tanks with even older thermal sights."I should say that Russia stockpiled equipment, weapons, and equipment during the Cold War. And we appreciate that she has enough of it to continue the conflict for the next two years. Of course, this is not a question of quality, we are talking more about quantity, but what is being pulled out of the warehouses and used on the Ukrainian front today, T-62 tanks, other outdated weapons, it is destroying Ukrainian forces, it is destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, it is causing enormous damage , increases the cost of reconstruction."
This is the same Russia that views the West as such a threat, it invaded Ukraine, where its its military has not won is getting ground down. Two more years of this and Russia will not have much of an army left.
Noted.
It’s kinda “funny” reading over at oilprice.com. In a week or two, depending on the articles selected, you can come to almost any dang conclusion you want.
That’s a very interesting article.
The “two year” prediction is itself predicated on Russian losses continuing at about their present rate.
I doubt that is going to happen. The USA is ramping up Excalibur production.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xniod2kwET0
If we have any sense at all, the Ukies will get some of the M777ER version too. (43 mile range.)
Once the GLSDB’s arrive in decent numbers, Russia’s logistics losses are going to go through the roof.
Of course, all this depends on how low the Russians are willing to let their reserves get.
Colonel Paulavičius says something else very interesting:
“Lithuania’s intelligence services said sanctions had not harmed Russia’s ability to fund its military as it redirects resources to them from public welfare.”
Well, turn that around — that means Russia is already having to pull rubles from the “butter” side of its budget. And the real budget crunch is yet to come.
How long will the pensioners put up with how much of this?
According to Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Yale School of Management, no one knows what the real state of the Russian economy is since they stopped reporting key indicators the second quarter of 2022. No one is trading in Rubles either. All the numbers about the Russian economy come from Russia with no ability to verify any of it. When the IMF and World Bank talk about the Russian economy, they are talking about Russian numbers, not their own. All the Russian economic numbers are made up. The observed effects on the Russian economy are automobile production is down 99% and the Russian military is stripping computer chips out of refrigerators. Russian economy is on par with Chile and they are at best breaking even on energy sales.
After one year, Russian economy is where Germany and Japan were at the end of World War II, when the US and Europe are still warming up in the batter's box. China and India can not bail Russia out, the pipeline infrastructure is not there and neither of them want to antagonize the US and Europe simultaneously. Buying oil and natural gas at the sanction rate is just fine with them.
...and the rest struck kindergartens, old age homes, maternity hospitals and Transsexual Clinics.
I guess my question for him, and perhaps for you, would be:
1) The data from Russia for gov't revenues the last couple months has sharply been pretty disastrous. If the Russians are just making it up, why would they report such poor numbers?
2) If the true numbers for recent Russian Gov't revenues are much worse than reported, and were much worse than reported for 2022, wouldn't Putin by now be forced to take considerably more aggressive austerity and other measures than we know of? If Russia's reserves run out, Pooty has even bigger problems, so, I'd think he'd be taking pretty strong measures to string the finances out.
After one year, Russian economy is where Germany and Japan were at the end of World War II
If that was true, I think the free fall would be obvious -- something like 1900, perhaps, if not 1905.
My own assessment is more middle ground: Assuming global energy prices don't surge upward strongly again, and assuming some oligarch who sees the writing on the wall doesn't get Putin before Putin gets him, I can see Putin stretching things out a year or so before he's really short on funds for his war. Then we will see how willing the citizens of Russia are to sacrifice to support him.
You forgot all of the Ukrainian puppies that have been struck by missiles.
I'll do better next time.
So what... Zelensky said of yesterdays missile attach that Russia using hypersonic missiles “was a sign of weakness”. (Because it meant they were out of the slower ones.)
But, I’ll bet the Ukrainian’s caught in the crossfire don’t agree.
You didn’t fix crap
Though we hope that his vet could take of that...
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