Exactly. Especially since Ukraine has every right to attack Belarus because it hosted Russian forces for the invasion of Ukraine, and one of the routes of invasion was from Belarus; and yet Ukraine’s military has not attacked or invaded Belarus. Russia did not use Transnistria to launch any part of its invasion of Ukraine.
I firmly believe Ukraine won’t attack Belarus directly as long as Belarus doesn’t attack Ukraine directly. Period.
Both countries are sticking to the Budapest agreement. Ukraine doesn’t talk about putting boots in Belarus. Russia is the only country intentionally, and overtly, violating the Budapest agreement.
It can’t have escaped anyone’s attention that Lukashenko did Ukraine a huge favor posting the Kremlin’s invasion roadmap on his national television, confirming to the Baltic and Poland that no country in that region is off limits as far as Putin is concerned.
Since he did that he’s made a show of defending Belarus’ other borders. He’s all “Sorry, comrade Putin, we just can’t commit all our attention to invading Ukraine when Poland’s on a war footing.” Well, who convinced them to get tooled up in the first place? He did!
Russia can use Belarus, but it can’t rely on Belarus’troops. They know what’s happened to the mobiks. They’d probably frag the Russian commanders if ordered to invade Ukraine.
Ukraine won’t attack Transnistria unless they have intel on those Russians going to open the vaults, tool up, and join the fight.