Battle for Bakhmut Is About to Become More Difficult: U.K.
Newsweek
Isabel van Brugen
3-2-2023 5:30 a.m. EST
https://www.newsweek.com/battle-bakhmut-difficult-muddy-conditions-spring-1784972
The bloody battle for Bakhmut is about to become even more difficult as warmer weather conditions set in, the British Ministry of Defence said.
In its latest assessment of the conflict in Ukraine, which hit the one-year mark on February 24, the ministry said that rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions known in Ukrainian as “bezdorizhzhia,” limiting cross-country movement around (CCM) in Bakhmut, in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russian forces, alongside Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, have been pouring fighters into the region since July 2022 in an attempt to capture it. Seizing the small industrial city is part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated war goals. He has said his “special military operation” aims to capture the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, collectively known as the Donbas.
Poor CCM, the defense ministry said, typically provides some military advantage to defending forces.
“Daytime soil temperatures have risen and are now largely above freezing. As experienced since mid-February 2023, overnight freeze and daytime thaw remains likely until next week,” it said. “Forecast warmer than average conditions for the remainder of winter and spring will further reduce CCM.”
The British defense ministry said it is almost certain that by late-March CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw.
“This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector,” it added.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington, said in its latest assessment of the conflict that Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut on Wednesday.
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bezdorizhzhia better known as the rasputitsa (распу́тица) in Russian.
“ The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington, said in its latest assessment of the conflict that Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut on Wednesday.”
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Absolutely brilliant assessment since the Russians conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut everyday and have for many months. I follow ground operations in Ukraine from sources on both sides and have a pretty accurate picture of the ongoing tactical situations there. It seems clear that the Russians are working on “shaping” the Bakhmut front situation so the city is tightly surrounded with a continually narrowing line of communication allowing VERY restricted entrance and exit from the city. I believe the Russians are intent on making this single way in and out very narrow with traffic highly visible and subject to accurate fire along much of the route. I’m guessing they want to keep that road BARELY “open” so they can inflict continuous casualties to every transit attempt. It’s becoming a FOCUSED killing zone in the larger meat grinder that is Bakhmut.