Just getting started.
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With the Ukies loss of Artymovsk ( Russian name for Bakmut) it is the beginning of the end.
We will have to see if the 11-12 Ukie battalions ( stated from both Russian and Ukie MOD) entrapped can somehow escape. In any case, the fall of Bakmut ensures the liberation of the Donbass, meeting the first objective that Vlad announced back on 24 Feb 22.
It is becoming clearer every day Vlad is accomplishing his stated goals and objectives, I fully expect the US to step up their escalation even though our General twinkle toes Milley is now on record as suggesting negotiations…
Vlad still holds Al the cards.
Big Serge and Simplicus the Thinker are both discussing the RF is going slowly while they move away from their BTG organization while adapting to the war they have. Fair enough.
Five Eyes targeting info is basically pinning everything in place. Ugledar and Marinka pin the ends of the southeast salient. Both were constructed by the evil geniuses that planned the Soviet economy, where apartment buildings are concrete redoubts. Both are protected by pivoting artillery batteries in Kurakhove. Highly accurate with Five Eyes intel.
If either Marinka or Ugledar fall, AFU loses Kurakhove. Ugledar is in the Steppe, which is a whole different topography than the hills and valleys of the Donbass. Once the Donbass is cleared and defensive positions breached, territory will be easier to come by and will be taken by the newly reorganized RF.
Once big chunks of steppe behind organized defense are taken, it will appear as a collapse. The RF will need to decide if they will cross the Dneiper. The diplomats will be going batsit at that point. If yes, they will move to Poltava then Kremenchug to cover their flanks for their lush to Transnistria.
If the want to grind the nose of the collective West in it, from there ther will take Malorusya through Vinnista then Zhitomir up to the Belarusian border where the will drink vodka and eat caviar.
They are preparing for a 30 month engagement.
Just my $.02