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July 10, 2001, when Johnson wrote The Declining Terrorist Threat for the New York Times? A few months before 9/11 happened? /s That was when people understood regardless of politics, some self appointed experts were so wrong they were determined to stay wrong for life.

In Johnson's case when it comes to Ukraine, he is determined to selectively miss the point to created one sided narratives in Russia's favor. The goal of the sanctions is Russian war production, not food production. Russian agriculture is independent of material war production. Stores selling imported goods, clothes, appliances, parts have closed. Businesses relying on foreign parts from Europe have had to reduce production and improvise. China is not going to replace German machine tools or French electronics.Supermarkets selling food will not change this.

Russia's main tank plant can not produce new tanks and has to refurbish older models with sights and parts designed for even older tanks. They have fired so many cruise and ballistic missiles, the frequency of missile attacks and quantity per attack has dropped. Russia can produce 20 KH series cruise missiles per month, of much lower quality and performance than before, while Ukraine's air defenses are increasing in capability. Heavy machine guns and MANPAD SAMS have shot down Russian drones and cruise missiles.

Russia has used up so much artillery, they have had to cut back. Wagner used to be favored for equipment. Now they are getting the same as the rest of the Russian army they are complaining about shortages. Remember when Russia had inexhaustible artillery munitions, the cruise missiles and drones on energy infrastructure were to freeze Ukraine in to surrender, Kherson and Kharkiv were really failures for Ukraine showing they were about to lose, or that Ukraine had already lost by July before HIMARS showed up? Neither does Johnson.

Estimating Russia's economic outlook is problematic for two reasons. First, Russia stopped reporting key indicators shortly after the invasion started. Second everyone is assuming Russia is lying about its real economic situation. Gazprom previously announced than in March, they will cut oil production by a half million barrels per day. Russia can not sell what it is not producing, and for what it sells, everyone is buying at the sanction rate because the US and Europe control insurance and shipping. Russia can sell to India and China, who are happy to buy at a rate nearly at cost of production.