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This Key Bond Yield Is About to Break Out. What It Means About the Fed.
Barrons/Marketwatch ^ | 2/17/2023 | Jacob Sonenshine

Posted on 02/17/2023 1:08:00 PM PST by SaxxonWoods

he two-year Treasury yield is about to break out, and the move is worth noting as it signals the Federal Reserve may not be near the end of its interest rate hikes.

The two-year Treasury yield has risen to as high as about 4.7% in the past few days, and is settling at just below that mark for the moment. But it has had quite a run upward, as it has come from around 4.1% at its low point for this year.

Now it is close to its recent multiyear high of about 4.73% hit in early November. That is a key level partly because that is where buyers stepped in to promptly send the bond’s price higher and its yield lower (bond prices and yields move inversely). If there are few buyers this time around, it could mean that yield could break out and rise from there.

Before November, the last time the yield reached that level was in 2007, just before the 2008-09 financial crisis decimated markets and the Fed had to lower rates to stabilize the economy.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Good article from Barrons. I don't totally agree with the end where he says watch the FED. The FED is reactive, not proactive. I say watch the Bond Market, it will tell you where the FED is going next.

Everybody, good luck with whatever path you are following, and may you find success in your endeavors, whatever they are. Only you have the power to make the moves and changes you need to make in your life to make it great.

1 posted on 02/17/2023 1:08:00 PM PST by SaxxonWoods
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To: SaxxonWoods

Market crash coming soon is my guess.


2 posted on 02/17/2023 1:13:10 PM PST by jimwatx
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To: jimwatx

“Market crash coming soon is my guess.”

Too easy. What happens after that?


3 posted on 02/17/2023 1:20:33 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

“Market crash coming soon is my guess.”

Too easy. What happens after that?

***************

You buy up preferred stocks “on the cheap” while maintaining a short term treasury position.

Win-win or rinse & repeat, the metaphor doesn’t matter, but riding the next upswing in the business cycle is what matters.


4 posted on 02/17/2023 1:31:41 PM PST by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Same old... same old. A mash potatoe for brains president who makes/spends money like a madman with an aiding/abetting democratic congress(past) while the burden is laid on the American people,today!


5 posted on 02/17/2023 1:31:54 PM PST by existentially_kuffer
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To: SaxxonWoods

The Fed isn’t going to stop until interest rates are higher than the PPI. It’s up at 6% for the past year.

The Fed has a ways to go.


6 posted on 02/17/2023 1:43:52 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: unclebankster
economists-v-economy
7 posted on 02/17/2023 1:47:33 PM PST by PGR88 (, )
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To: Vermont Lt

The Fed isn’t going to stop until interest rates are higher than the PPI. It’s up at 6% for the past year.

The Fed has a ways to go.

*************

Yep,

The crowd who think we’re going to pivot quickly back into cheap money are going to be very disappointed.


8 posted on 02/17/2023 2:01:57 PM PST by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

The 6 month went over 5%. First since.....what year?...You guessed it.....1987.


9 posted on 02/17/2023 2:07:38 PM PST by wardamneagle
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To: unclebankster

They have to get the rate up and leave it. My adult life (I’m 54) interest rates were reasonable at 6-8% for home loans. People survived. If interest rates go back to near zero, the fed has no ammunition to stimulate the economy.

So no pivot back to sub 1% rates. The fact that wall street thinks it will and has baked it in their valuations then the market will go down.


10 posted on 02/17/2023 2:15:02 PM PST by wgmalabama (Censored!)
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To: jimwatx

Real question is how long until the yield curve becomes uninverted? Short terms are much higher interest rate than the long terms.


11 posted on 02/17/2023 2:23:37 PM PST by glorgau
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To: wgmalabama

They have to get the rate up and leave it. My adult life (I’m 54) interest rates were reasonable at 6-8% for home loans. People survived. If interest rates go back to near zero, the fed has no ammunition to stimulate the economy.

So no pivot back to sub 1% rates. The fact that wall street thinks it will and has baked it in their valuations then the market will go down.

******

You “get it” on interest rates.(BTW I’m 51)

👍


12 posted on 02/17/2023 3:12:36 PM PST by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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