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Battles in Vuhledar, Bakhmut Signal Imminent Russian Offensive, Analysts Say
The Moscow Times ^ | Feb. 15, 2023 | Pyotr Kozlov

Posted on 02/15/2023 6:59:11 AM PST by Salohcin

Dozens of damaged military vehicles with Russian markings could be seen scattered chaotically across a snow-covered field in footage released last week of a battlefield near the eastern Ukrainian mining town of Vuhledar, southwest of the Russian-held city of Donetsk.

The hulls of some of the armored vehicles were covered in black soot from what appeared to be recent fires. Lying nearby were tank turrets and other parts from combat vehicles that had been dismembered by explosions.

Next to the burned-out vehicles, the drone footage clearly showed the dead bodies of what appeared to be Russian soldiers.

The intense fighting around Vuhledar is likely to have been one of the opening engagements of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine, analysts told The Moscow Times on Tuesday, as the Kremlin apparently gears up for a renewed attempt to seize large areas of Ukrainian territory.

The escalating military confrontation looks set to cause a major rise in casualties, heralding a new, bloody stage in the war as it enters its second year.

Russia’s losses — and failure to advance — in Vuhledar suggest they may not have much success.

"We are waiting for an expected offensive in the Kreminna-Svatove area that will likely be spearheaded by the 76th Air Assault Division,” Rob Lee, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told The Moscow Times, referring to one of Russia’s elite paratrooper units.

“They may have more success [than in Vuhledar], but it is unlikely they will be able to achieve a true breakthrough and seize much territory."

If the fighting in Vuhledar is anything to go by, the Ukrainians will be able to put up a stiff defense against Russian attacks — and possibly inflict major losses.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces last week destroyed what appeared to be a Russian convoy near Vuhledar consisting of troops from the 55th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, disabling more than 30 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, according to Lee.

A surviving 55th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade marine who spoke with Russia’s 7x7 regional news site Monday said losses were so severe that only eight men remained in one of the unit’s companies (at full strength, each company has about 100 men).

“I wish I had been taken prisoner and never returned,” he said, according to 7x7.

Due to a lack of demining equipment, Russian commanders in Vuhledar reportedly ordered their tank units to attack Ukrainian positions in a single line, making them an easy target.

The Russian military’s tactics around Vuhledar have been bitterly criticized by several influential Russian military bloggers, including the Grey Zone Telegram channel, believed to be affiliated with mercenary group Wagner, and Igor Girkin, a retired Russian special ops officer who is a vocal critic of the Russian war effort.

Just 150 kilometers away from Vuhledar, Russian soldiers, including Wagner mercenaries, have also been stepping up their attacks on the city of Bakhmut — where fierce fighting has been ongoing for months.

"The Russians are advancing several times a day, one after the other. Ours shoot at them — they walk into the bullets and fall to the ground,” Ukrainian volunteer Viktoria Khamaza said last week of the fighting in Bakhmut to Ukrainian media outlet Zerkalo.

“More Russian soldiers come after them, they just follow the corpses!”

Kremlin-linked businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, said over the weekend that his troops had seized the village of Krasna Hora to the north of Bakhmut, which, if true, would threaten Ukrainian supply lines into the contested city.

While Russia does not provide official casualty figures, there is some evidence that Russia has been suffering rising casualties in recent weeks — including Ukrainian claims of record Russian deaths as well as figures from independent Russian journalists tracking Russia’s human losses in the fighting.

The desire of Russia's political leadership to launch a significant attack is limited by the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and a lack of weapons and equipment, Israeli military expert David Gendelman told the Moscow Times.

"The Russian leadership faces a choice: either continue the slow gnawing in the Donbas… and increase the pressure along the entire Donbas front. Or to opt for a new major offensive from the north or from the south, which in the current circumstances would border on the adventurous," Gendelman said.

The expert added that the Kremlin’s decision would be reflected on the ground in the coming days.

Western politicians, military leaders and experts have been warning since late last year that the Kremlin is likely building up its forces to mount a new offensive.

What is happening now shows that a major Russian attack is already underway, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday.

The likely goal of Russia’s military command is to regain the initiative it lost back in the summer, when Ukraine reclaimed swathes of territory in a successful counteroffensive, Bloomberg reported last month, citing sources. Experts at the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) expressed the same opinion in January.

Meanwhile, in contrast, the Kremlin continues to accuse Kyiv of amassing its own forces to launch an attack on Russian-held territory.

Some observers assess that President Vladimir Putin believes he can win thanks to the numerical superiority of his army, which has been replenished by hundreds of thousands of men called up in Russia’s “partial” mobilization last year.

Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions have also been mentioned as possible targets for a large-scale offensive by Russian forces in addition to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Major problems facing the Kremlin, however, are minimal training provided to newly mobilized recruits and losses of sophisticated military equipment.

Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has destroyed or captured at least 1,727 Russian tanks, according to Dutch group Oryx, which uses open-source data to track Russia’s materiel losses.

Without sufficient tanks and armored fighting vehicles, Russia will struggle to carry out large-scale offensive maneuvers, according to ISW experts.

While Russia may be planning to try and launch a new offensive on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, it is likely to fail given its poorly-trained troops, according to analyst Lee.

And if Russia loses significant amounts of men and materiel — like in Vuhledar — it will become vulnerable to a Ukrainian offensive later in the spring, he said, especially as Kyiv continues to receive advanced weaponry from its Western allies.

“The question is whether Russia has sufficient offensive capability to seize much territory,” said Lee.

“Russia has mobilized a large number of soldiers and likely has a manpower advantage, but these are not necessarily well-trained or motivated units. Poorly trained soldiers are more useful in defense than offense.”


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: 0bidenlover; 0spamspamspam; influentialbloggers; notourwar; pyotrkozlov; russia; russoukrainianwar; ukraine; zelviswrestleshitler
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1 posted on 02/15/2023 6:59:11 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: Salohcin

“...according to ISW experts.”

Our pals at The Institute For Grifting On War, mouthpiece of The Demon Nuland.


2 posted on 02/15/2023 7:27:53 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: kiryandil

So the ISW is wrong in saying that there is a Russian offensive imminent?


3 posted on 02/15/2023 7:28:59 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince
Just pointing out that the ISW [The Institute For Grifting On War] is the mouthpiece of The Vile Demon Nuland.

Did this disrupt your morning prayers at your bedroom altar to "Cookies" Nuland?

4 posted on 02/15/2023 7:37:32 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: FreshPrince

You’re actually disrupting my search for the hidden Washingsnot Pest article from Monday about the new 10 billion dollar aid package to the grifters in Kiev.


5 posted on 02/15/2023 7:40:13 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Salohcin

How many Russians is Putin willing to sacrifice so he and his henchmen can steal Ukraine’s oil and gas?

1) 250,000
2) 500,000
3) 1,000,000
4) All of them


6 posted on 02/15/2023 7:51:29 AM PST by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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To: Salohcin

I don’t understand why the Ukes don’t cut off the rail and highway bridge to Crimea to force the Russians to concentrate there? The supply lines there are so exposed and weak that the Himars missiles can do the job in one day and cut the Crimea off from the rest of the Russian occupied area.


7 posted on 02/15/2023 7:54:53 AM PST by Midwesterner53
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To: Salohcin

it is tragic how little putin/russia values their own people

they just don’t care how many russians die

hopefully the russia people love their children, their boys


8 posted on 02/15/2023 8:04:37 AM PST by Sunsong
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To: Midwesterner53
The HIMARs just punch holes.

They weren't even able to destroy the Antonivka Bridge with HIMARs.

9 posted on 02/15/2023 8:18:57 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Salohcin

Moscow Times is just BS propaganda.
So is ISW.
If the russians are going to prioritize capturing the annexed regions then they will probably wait until Bakhmud is liberated and use those critical roads in that region....
.
and Bakhmud is going fast.pincer is closing in and that last escape road is nearly within artillery range!
Krasna Gora captured and Paraskovika nearly encircled.
Today’s update from neutral source DPA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY8vwsHpijY


10 posted on 02/15/2023 8:19:59 AM PST by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: CarolinaReaganFan

Falling fast? It’s taking 8 months! 🙄


11 posted on 02/15/2023 9:03:11 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: Salohcin

Give it up. Putin is dying and RuZZia has already lost, according to Milley. There are several experts who post frequently who know exactly what is happening in the Ukraine war which Ukraine is winning because they have been fighting on their own territory and are defeating RuZZian forces by the thousands and stacking their dead bodies like cordwood. Which makes me wonder how a weak and deeated RuZZia can do anything like mount an offensive.


12 posted on 02/15/2023 9:04:26 AM PST by webheart
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To: Sunsong

Russians do not suffer from “Bodybagaphobia” like the west—In all the gulf war we lost 5,000 fighters. In 30 minutes, in one battle in 1863, the Union Army lost that many! If we lose 10,000 men in a war—today—there would be peace marches and a call for surrender. Russia can and may well lose 50,000 and still fight on to win. All we have are Ukraine figures on how many Russia has lost? What is the true number? Question for you: How many men, women, children did we kill in Iraq? What was their losses? Well, you say, Saddam was another Hitler so we had to slaughter them.


13 posted on 02/15/2023 9:12:02 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: MeganC

Putin is willing to fight Ukraine to the last Russian it appears...


14 posted on 02/15/2023 10:07:08 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: Salohcin

“fast” is a relative term. For Putars it must mean months and months and months since they have been proclaiming “its over” for as long....


15 posted on 02/15/2023 10:08:37 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: kiryandil

10 billion is a pittance. Send more!


16 posted on 02/15/2023 10:10:09 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: webheart

Good news is the Russians are now killing Russians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUshoz9jS2g


17 posted on 02/15/2023 10:14:04 AM PST by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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To: FreshPrince
10 billion is a pittance. Send more!

I'd rather spend that 10 billion on a southern border wall for the United States - but then again, I'm not a bloodthirsty warmongering globalist stooge like you...

18 posted on 02/15/2023 10:39:35 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: kiryandil

But then again I am not an person who would be dumb enough to think it was a case this or that.

Biden can give $0 to Ukraine and your wall will still not get built.


19 posted on 02/15/2023 12:21:44 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince
But then again I am not an person who would be dumb enough to think it was a case this or that.

You're dumb enough that you don't understand how political arguments work.      

Arguing that The Ukraine's border takes precedence over America's border puts you in the vegetable bin with the Tuber-In-Chief.

20 posted on 02/15/2023 12:43:45 PM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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