This may be more of an issue of who is winning the Mexican drug wars. When we put El Chapo in jail, we opened the job of head drug cartel, it might have been a mistake. The ones likely to win like violence for violence sake.
Sinaloa Cartel Were are drug businesses with the required violence.
jalisco new generation cartel Is violence then drug trafficking. They come north of the boarder and we will see major jumps in drug violence.
Here is Peter Zeihan on Joe Rogan. 5 min clip saying much what I stated above. Some may not like either Rogan / Zeihan -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzHzayxyj6U&t
If JNGC wins then I honestly believe the military of the USA will need to take the gloves off because I expect the Mexican military to fall to the corruption, violence and funding JNGC will have. We will literally have to take 25K-40K SOCOM with full air, ground and naval assets to execute an assault plan to destroy them. It will be our North American version of taking out the Taliban. We may be able to win this one. MAYBE.
We will see in 3-7 years. Give or take. I’m open to others correcting my limited knowledge.