Posted on 02/02/2023 9:18:41 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
A fresh Russian assault around the southern Donbas town of Vuhledar, which began towards the end of January, demonstrates that Moscow’s forces are becoming more capable before a critical – and increasingly uncertain – spring period.
Russian forces have not yet made significant gains across the open fields of the region, where the Ukrainians have been dug in for months. But in parallel with the seemingly never-ending Wagner Group-led assault on Bakhmut, 70 miles to the north-east, it shows the invaders trying to push forward at a second point.
Until now the conventional view has been that Ukraine holds the initiative in the near-year-long war, following Russia’s hasty and chaotic retreat from Izium in September and the better organised withdrawal from Kherson two months after. But some experts argue that is no longer the case, and the situation is more finely balanced.
The Institute for the Study of War this week said the conflict had settled into “positional warfare” that had given the Russians “the opportunity to regain the initiative if they choose and to raise the bar for future Ukrainian counteroffensives even if they do not”.
Overnight Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said there had been an increase in Russian operational tempo on the frontline. Although western officials do not yet believe the effort around Vuhledar represents the start of a spring offensive in “big strategic terms”, the speculation is that one could be around the corner.
Significantly it has come at a point when Russian air attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid have slowed, which may suggest Gen Valery Gerasimov’s command has brought about a change of tack to focus on a more conventional military approach rather than to try – and fail – to terrorise civilians from the skies.
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
Even these clowns are hinting at a change.
It’s early on the Third Quarter. The score is pretty much tied, and the Russians have the ball.
Good way to put it. Zelensky’s a good QB so far for the yellow/blue team but he may have fumbled on Bakhmut. George Washington would have retreated from that battle.
You love Russia and Communists.
It was a month ago or more now the Russians were arguing over who should get credit for this city falling into their hands. Obviously it never happened. Wonder how many they’ve lost there since. Putin must be furious.
So... There is no big Russian offensive... Looks like the Russian sympathizers are just a bit too enthusiastic.
Given that it’s been almost a year since this ‘two or three week’ war got underway, their enthusiasm is foolishness at best. It’s all over but the coup... And the coup will happen. That’s just a matter of time and time obviously isn’t on Vlad’s side.
“it has come at a point when Russian air attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid have slowed, which may suggest Gen Valery Gerasimov’s command has brought about a change of tack to focus on a more conventional military approach”
Russia’s plans to defeat Ukraine:
Plan A - Rapid decapitation strike. Failed
Plan B - Encircle major cities and force surrender. Failed
Plan C - Destroy Ukrainian forces in an Eastern cauldron. Failed
Plan D - Force surrender by bombarding water and power facilities. Failed
Plan E - Withdraw from Kherson and use those armies to storm the Donbass. Failed
They are now on Plan F. The new idea seems to be send 500K conscripts into Ukraine in hopes that Ukraine runs out of bullets before the Russians run out of men.
Maybe this plan will work, but more likely there will a lot of dead Russians and another fired general in a few months.
Same as all the previous plans.
Probably 50k dead convict Wagner troops. They'll have to send in the conscripts from the Russian military.
It is an extraordinarily stupid war, and one in which the US should never have gotten involved — especially not the way it did in 2014.
The plan is to force Zelensky into a war of attrition so he'll have to sign a cease fire. Putin gets a win because he gets to keep his occupied provinces in the east and south of Ukraine.
We may have prevented the war if Trump was still President in 2021. But Putin will just wait until 2025 in that scenario.
Putin won’t be around at the end of 2023... That solves the entire problem.
Good description, and tension is in the air.
Deserves repeating!
Let's also not forget that, what with the energy embargo, high-tech embargo, and various economic sanctions against Russia, Putin is fighting a multi-front war.
I do not wish to diminish the efforts of the Ukrainian patriots fighting and dying on the ground - but the war will not be won solely on the battlefield.
Regards,
Spring favors the bear. That does not make me a Putin fan, its just a simple observation from someone who sees a lot of parallels in the current conflict and WWII.
The Russians started slow in that war as well. They got much better over time as they figured out their logistics and how to effectively use their artillery and coordinated movement.
They sucked last February. They fought a type of war they were not prepared for and that favored the Ukrainians. Their spearhead units outran their artillery and logistics and the Ukrainians were able to ambush them or attack with smaller forces. They also had major problems coordinating their artillery to defend against Ukrainian attacks.
They withdrew for a reason and the Ukrainians dutifully followed them and dug in as Western media cheered. They have been getting the crap shelled out of them for the past few months taking casualties and achieving nothing beyond showing the West that they are “not retreating” so they can keep getting aid and weapons. It is not a formula for them to succeed, but here we are.
The Russians have most likely used this time to get rid of ineffective and corrupt leaders, promote those who showed aptitude for this, and perhaps most importantly they had a year to identify and promote some NCO’s (a critical weakness in a conscript Army) and they will probably mix them in with the new conscripted forces.
They have also had time to consolidate and figure out their logistics problems AND work on their coordination with their biggest advantage - artillery. Neutral observers have also pointed out that they may have finally figured out how to work their counter-battery radar and that will really cripple the Ukrainians this year as they don’t have enough tubes to begin with.
I suspect Putin pulled them back to conduct a reset and he has likely told his commanders to fight the battles on their terms. IF he can get half his new “conscripts” to fight, he seeds them with those who were able to perform and gain a years experience, and they can coordinate their infantry, artillery, and logistics they will not suck as bad as they did last year.
I tip my hat to the Ukrainians but I am uncertain how much they have left and they have few reserves. Attempting to hold the line as they have the past few months is not their kind of war and it favors those with the most artillery.
Could?????
Why would Russia launch a spring offensive? Wouldn’t a large scale military operation at that time turn Ukraine into a sea of mud?
The problem for Russia is they learned these lessons at great cost.
Their elite forces, the VDV and Spetsnaz were wiped out in the opening days when they were sent on what turned out to be suicide missions deep in Ukrainian territory.
The subsequent months saw massive amounts of armor and other equipment lost as the Russians tried to hold on without enough troops.
The Russian commanders have been learning, but the question now is if the smarter commanders can do much with the depleted and inexperienced forces that are all that is now left to them.
“The plan is to force Zelensky into a war of attrition so he’ll have to sign a cease fire. “
Shows how ignorant Putin is. You don’t win a war of attrition against a people defending their homeland.
Ireland, Algeria, Vietnam, Afghanistan 2x. History proves patriots will fight on for decades against a foreign occupier.
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