“set it up in advance”
That is a foolish assumption. The known facts and the actual course of events do not support it at all.
My take has always been that the US administration blundered, by projecting weakness and permitting Putin “wins”, that most likely encouraged him in his gamble. This US adninistration is incompetent, that should be a given.
The Ukrainians were not prepared for the attack, in the form it came. If it werent for an unanticipated desperate Ukrainian defense and likewise unanticipated Russian incompetence, Putin would have won his gamble.
“The Ukrainians were not prepared for the attack,”
Merkel and Hollande gave them 8 yrs.
We, Canada, and UK were in Ukraine training them for many years.
Russia sat on the border for days before invading.
Putin gave a public announcement.
The Russians dropped leaflets in Kiev before bombing a tv tower and other utilities early on.