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Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (Russia is winning, US needs off ramp)
RAND CORP (that's right) ^

Posted on 01/29/2023 8:50:51 AM PST by BusterDog

Discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington is increasingly dominated by the question of how it might end. To inform this discussion, this Perspective identifies ways in which the war could evolve and how alternative trajectories would affect U.S. interests. The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States.

(Excerpt) Read more at rand.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: commietrolls4putin; notourwar; putinisgay; soviettrollsonfr; zotsoviettrolls
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To: Long Jon No Silver

It is. In the end this was a major factor in the defeat of the Soviet Union and thus the culmination of the Pax Americana, our three decades of global peace.

Nothing lasts forever though, there is always something.

China turned from its promising path, up to @2010, with the rise of Xi, and his circle, the children of the old party chiefs, when they took over from the circle of Deng Xiaoping. Xi was a surprise in fact, because with his background one would have expected a natural liberal, given his background of troubles with the communists.

Its a bit like when Russia turned from its promising path as of 1914, and was taken over by the Bolsheviks. Nobody saw that coming.


101 posted on 01/29/2023 8:37:02 PM PST by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: ganeemead

The most Christian peoples in the area are the Romanians and Poles. They are the most devotedly religious people in Europe.

The Russians are middle of the Euro pack at best. The Ukrainians are more religious than the Russians.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Europe


102 posted on 01/29/2023 8:43:40 PM PST by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: buwaya

You charged in on your steed to the defence of a poster who rattled off a laundry list of supposed neo con successes. Once of which is the containment of China. Which is simply not true. The fact is, American elites in politics and business have helped China become an unshackled behemoth


103 posted on 01/29/2023 8:53:58 PM PST by Long Jon No Silver (Rrily)
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To: ganeemead

I’ve often wondered if you were just taking the piss.

Your FR name, for one thing, is a curious choice for FR. Ganymede was Zeus pretty-boy cupbearer, and catamite (you know, those Greeks). There is a joke there somewhere.


104 posted on 01/29/2023 8:54:14 PM PST by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: Long Jon No Silver

“Unshackled behemoth” = “prosperous country”. The second was a prerequisite for “behemoth”.

The one cannot be without the other, and yet prosperity is nevertheless a moral and benevolent objective. A policy to cripple Chinese economic liberation would have been evil. And an evil course likely would have made a more dangerous China sooner.

We cannot know what turns a country will take, and we are not responsible for its internal politics. But for what China has become, otherwise, and its good behavior to this point, the US nevertheless deserves credit.


105 posted on 01/29/2023 9:25:35 PM PST by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: Long Jon No Silver

Only anti-American leftists call the Iraq War imperialist. It wasn’t Bush’s War. Iraq declared war on us. That is what breaking a cease fire is. Trump was for the war before he was against it. It is all there in black and white in his 2000 book. Trump then lied and gave comfort to our enemies. Because that’s who he is.


106 posted on 01/29/2023 10:07:55 PM PST by Geo81 (Conservatism, not populism)
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To: Long Jon No Silver

I don’t believe that opposing a particular military involvement is anti American.

I KNOW that many things posted about Ukraine are virulently anti American.

In fact it’s constant.

People gleeful that America will be abandoned by its allies, that Russia is fighting against the evil that is America, that we’re racist to fight in Europe, that our government is the enemy not Russia. They write leeringly that the “American Empire” is going to be destroyed. America is causing WW3, in fact it’s a plot by America to cause WW3.
This goes on and on and it’s not the exception. These people are using the same anti American arguments as the left adopted in the 60’s and 70’s.
Some of them say America was at fault in every war, including WW2.
Today it was that “the rest of the world must hate us for a good reason”.
It doesn’t, and all the above are anti American.


107 posted on 01/29/2023 10:11:51 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: Williams
You want to have your cake and eat it too.

Your thesis is that the USA actually won wars we clearly lost like Vietnam, except the Left snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

We spent 20 years in Afghanistan and the Taliban over-ran it in a few weeks. The Left (Obama) prosecuted the war, including a neocon supported "surge" for his entire term.

You say

Vietnam war completely won and peace agreement signed.

Revisionist history is supposed to bring some clever new insight, not just obscure the past with wishful thinking.

No one there at the time thought or claimed the war was won. Just as in Afghanistan most military analysts knew it was only a matter of time until the North won, once we left. The North was hardly "defeated" when we left. The Paris Peace Accords didn't even end the war, just Americas involvement.

Democrat leftists in Congress abandoned our ally to an invasion.
You are essentially arguing that we should have re-invaded Vietnam after leaving. 15 years and 50,000 American lives wasn't enough?

You and fellow neocons don't factor in that Americans have a threshold for donating their young men to support the mad plans of the neocon war advocates. But any intelligent war plan would need to factor this in.

Insane withdrawal and abandonment of Afghanistan by leftist Biden administration.

Trump, like Nixon before him, negotiated directly with the enemy (Taliban) and left the puppet regime largely out of the loop. Trump's agreed upon terms foresaw all US troops leaving Afghanistan. Yes, Biden did a poor job on the withdrawal. But Trump negotiated it. Improper withdrawal from Iraq by leftist Obama administration. Weakening of US military by leftist Obama and Biden administrations.

One gets very tired of the childish lies thrown around by people who understand nothing about history.

We neocon opponents aren't the ones indulging in fanciful revisionist history, that's you!

We are all very tired of your childish tantrums, ridiculous claims, and permanent wars. The neocons are a pox on America.

108 posted on 01/30/2023 4:22:29 AM PST by Vlad0 (Ukraine is the money laundering center for the Soros / WEF / Democratic elite. Ask Hunter! )
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To: Vlad0

My thesis was that in every single case, leftists lost the wars, that’s just a fact.

And Vietnam, the grandaddy of them all, is the clearest case.

The left has insisted that we lose those wars.


109 posted on 01/30/2023 7:04:31 AM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: ganeemead

“You can bet your ass I want Russia to win. I assume that God also wants Russia to win.”

there you have it from a freeper.


110 posted on 01/30/2023 9:17:35 AM PST by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: Williams
My thesis was that in every single case, leftists lost the wars, that’s just a fact.

At some level it's a distinction without a difference. The USA has arguably been a majority "leftist" country since FDR. Both FDR and LBJ enjoyed huge majorities in both houses of Congress while President, something the GOP has not had in the post-WW2 period.

America would have won *excpet for those guys* - but *those guys* happen to be the leaders of the institutional majority party.

From the point of view of anyone outside of the USA: We (The United States of America) lost, regardless of what part of the loss the Democrats contributed vs. what percent of the loss the GOP contributed.

Somehow war advocates and planners can't figure this out?

Bush1 understood it. He got into and out of Iraq before the weariness and disunity set in. Reagan understood it: he got things done without big wars, few skirmishes here and there is all.

111 posted on 01/30/2023 2:30:03 PM PST by Vlad0 (Ukraine is the money laundering center for the Soros / WEF / Democratic elite. Ask Hunter! )
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To: amnestynone


112 posted on 01/30/2023 4:23:30 PM PST by ganeemead (Ukraine/Zelensky: Adding an element of chutzpah to ordinary Nazism...)
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To: ganeemead
And what happens if Russia takes over every square inch of that place and starts coming after us. This is not about Ukraine this is about Russia. they have been the evil empire for the last 100 years and if they win they will probably start to rebuild and we will have to deal with them again. We now have the ability to take them down . They and their war machine and hopefully see them break into a bunch of little countries and then we will never ever have to deal with them again and that will be for the better. I can't believe the Russian propaganda you are posting. The more things change the more they stay the same since Russia is a stagnated country that only learns decency the hard way.
113 posted on 01/30/2023 4:53:11 PM PST by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: Vlad0

My thesis was that in every single case, leftists lost the wars, that’s just a fact.

And Vietnam, the grandaddy of them all, is the clearest case.

The left insisted that we lose those wars.


114 posted on 01/30/2023 5:23:35 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: Vlad0

Nice name. Not


115 posted on 01/30/2023 5:35:10 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: amnestynone

seek help...


116 posted on 01/30/2023 6:23:16 PM PST by ganeemead (Ukraine/Zelensky: Adding an element of chutzpah to ordinary Nazism...)
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To: ganeemead

seek help yourself if you believe all of that rubbish. You are just like the liberals who supported the Soviet Union back in the day. They are the same Russian thugs they always were and now we have a golden opportunity to end it all and you want to spread this rubbish.


117 posted on 01/30/2023 6:39:58 PM PST by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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