Posted on 01/27/2023 1:27:45 PM PST by Drew68
Donald Trump spent the final months of 2022 reeling from electoral setbacks and media disasters. Many of his high-profile endorsements in the midterm elections flopped. His attacks on popular GOP governors in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Georgia did little damage to their reputations. His 2024 campaign launch was a snooze. His infamous and inexcusable dinner at Mar-a-Lago with high-profile anti-Semites put him on the political fringe. By the end of last year, Trump appeared to be fading from the national conversation. His chances of winning the Republican nomination seemed to dim.
Now those chances are brightening. Trump continues to dominate in polls of Republicans. He's drawn even with President Biden in head-to-head matchups. He lobbied successfully for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) to become speaker of the House of Representatives. His loyalists on the House Judiciary, Oversight, and Weaponization of the Federal Government committees will be sure to advance his interests. He's plotting his return to Facebook, Instagram, and possibly Twitter, and his connection with the Republican base remains strong.
Most important of all, Trump's rivals in both the Democratic and Republican parties are repeating the mistakes they made in the run-up to the 2016 election. The Democrats assume that there is no way for Trump to become president, while Republicans believe he will fade from the scene. Their failure to learn from history has made it possible not only for Trump to win the GOP nomination for the third straight time, but to pull another inside straight in the Electoral College and return to the White House. For decades, Trump has said that the political class is corrupt, insular, and incompetent, and that Republican leaders lack guts. Washington is doing its best to prove him right.
Trump's recovery began on January 9, when news broke that classified documents had been found months earlier at a D.C. office President Biden used from 2017 to 2019. Biden, who had called Trump irresponsible and worse when the FBI recovered classified material from Mar-a-Lago last summer, was exposed as a hypocrite. Attorney General Merrick Garland came under intense pressure to appoint a special counsel for Biden, since he already had appointed one to investigate Trump for mishandling classified information and for subverting the last presidential election.
Garland relented on January 12 and tapped U.S. Attorney Robert Hur to lead the inquiry. On January 20, the FBI searched Biden's Wilmington, Del., residence (though not his home in Rehoboth Beach) and unearthed more secret papers. A few days later, former vice president Mike Pence disclosed that classified documents had been found at his house, too.
This chaotic and ridiculous situation is a boon for Trump. Politically, there is no way Garland can indict the sole declared candidate for the presidency in 2024 while exonerating Biden, who's expected to announce his own reelection campaign soon. If Garland were to do so, Trump would portray himself, reasonably, as the victim of a double standard. Biden's boneheaded handling of the documents also reinforces one of Trump's core beliefs: Everyone in politics behaves corruptly, but he alone does so without pretense.
Trump still must worry about separate inquiries, in D.C. and Atlanta, into his conduct after losing the 2020 election. The fight with the National Archives over his papers is a sideshow. If anything, it's Biden who ought to be concerned. The president's changing statements on the subject, and the drip-drip-drip of stories about the material in his possession, raise additional doubts about his honesty and competence.
House Republicans plan to scrutinize the Biden family's influence-peddling business. They are desperate to find a connection between Hunter Biden's laptop from hell and the government intelligence in Joe Biden's garage. Democrats with long memories remember how Hillary Clinton's mishandling of classified information dogged her in 2016. They don't want to go through that mess again.
They may not have a choice. Whether it's the document drama or the looming presidential campaign, history seems to be following a path it traveled once before. Not only has Trump frozen the GOP field, with potential challengers not expected to announce their candidacies for months, if ever. Trump also benefits from the same dynamics that helped him in 2016: His opponents think he will just disappear, a multi-candidate primary gives him an edge, and no Republican wants to attack him directly.
Recently, a few high-profile Republicans have predicted that Trump won't be the GOP nominee. These prognosticators share certain traits: None of them thought Trump would win in 2016, they said Republicans would win big in 2022 (yes, I did too), and they no longer hold elected office precisely because of the changes Trump made to their party. Trump inspires a form of wishful thinking among certain groups of people, a collective illusion that, despite all evidence to the contrary, someday his behavior will change, and he will be content playing golf. Well, it won't, and he's not. The way to thwart Trump is for voters to choose someone else.
That outcome is less likely in a multi-candidate race. In 2016 the non-Trump vote divided three ways among Sens. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) and Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) and then-governor John Kasich (R., Ohio). The fracture allowed Trump to capitalize on the winner-take-all structure of GOP primaries and win significant contests, and eventually the nomination, with a plurality of votes. The same thing is happening in polls today. As Nathaniel Rakich observes at FiveThirtyEight, when pollsters offer Republicans several choices, Trump wins by a huge margin. But, in head-to-head matchups with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Trump tends to lose.
At this writing, DeSantis presents the biggest obstacle for Trump. He sits atop the field in state-level polls of New Hampshire and South Carolina. He's a proven winner and fundraiser who knows when to pick high-profile cultural battles that endear him to conservatives and the MAGA crew. His crusade against wokeness is a way to unify the party behind a tough and competent executive who hasn't alienated suburban independents in his home state. If nominated, he'd represent a rising generation for change against an 81-year-old incumbent who has been in politics for half a century.
Naturally, other Republicans have begun to attack DeSantis. That's to be expected. No one is entitled to a party's nomination, politics ain't beanbag, and running for president ought to be, and is, an arduous task. Potential GOP candidates are probing for weaknesses in DeSantis's stance on abortion, his hardball tactics with big business, his national appeal, and his personal demeanor. Notice, though, whom these Republicans are not criticizing. His initials are DJT.
As happened seven years ago, Republicans are avoiding Trump either because they believe he will pack up and go home or because they are afraid of incurring his wrath and the animosity of his most devoted supporters. They are falling back into formation as a circular firing squad that hurts everybody but the former president.
The presidential campaign is just beginning. No one knows what lies ahead. The Trump rebound may soon pass and won't come again. There's a sleeper candidate or two out there who will make this race interesting.
For now, though, Democrats and Republicans are gambling that they can behave in 2024 just like they did in 2016, but produce a different result.
You willing to bet?
“The Trump 2024 strategy is essentially the same as 2020 and 2016. Rallies, tweet feuds, ideology etc.”
Trump has not started his campaign yet.
Ideology? I asked you if MAGA offended you. It must.
He hasn’t tweeted in years.
You are so full of crap.
Are you serious?
you’re posting articles that insinuate he’s running for president...
and i mentioned the “desantis instructed people not to donate to any organization that claims he’s running for president in 2024...
why are you lying?...
Kari hasn’t given up yet so I’m not. I agree heads must roll.
If Trump wins the nomination, I’ll vote for him
I second the vote it has a nice ring to it.
Bonus round Biden is shown the door where the Trump plaque is mounted.
MAGA round two
Sure, I guess.
As I posted above, I think DeSantis can flip AZ, GA, and VA.
I think the only chance Trump has at winning is if the Democrats are stupid enough to run Kamala Harris, who posts lower negatives then even Biden does. It'll be 2016 all over again with independent and moderate voters holding their noses to vote for Trump because they loathe his opponent even more than they loathe him. Kamala Harris would be a disaster and the Democrats know this. Don't be surprised to see the Dems pull a "Spiro Agnew" on her to get someone more palatable in before Biden dies or resigns.
If Harris finds herself the sitting president, there will be an ugly primary battle and the Democrats remember all too well the ugly primary in 1980 between Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy. Carter emerged victorious but his campaign was mortally wounded.
Gavin Newsom? There's a lot of chatter about him but I think California is too much of a basket-case for him to be a formidable candidate. Just imagine, every opposition commercial will feature videos of California's growing homeless and crime-ridden dystopia.
The Democrat candidate that keeps me up at night is Gretchen Whitmer. She's the Democrat DeSantis. Re-elected in a landslide in a battleground state. She checks the woman box. Checks the mom box. She'll appeal to suburban moms (in the way Kamala Harris does not). She seems to have weathered her COVID excesses fairly well and Michigan isn't a basket case of dysfunction.
Gretchen Whitmer would be a formidable candidate.
The other candidate who keeps me up at night is Michelle Obama. She could win on nostalgia alone. Fortunately, it doesn't appear she has any interest in elective politics, preferring a life of leisure and Hollywood A-list parties. It's the Democrats' loss because she could easily win, at the very least, Feinstein's senate seat from which to build a base. She'd win it in a walk. All the Obama's have to do is buy a beachfront property in Malibu.
Dude, you are really a special needs kid.
The organizations raising money for DeSantis aren't legitimate because the legitimate organizations will be set up by the DeSantis Team himself and these haven't been established yet.
I could set up a "TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT 2024" fundraising website tomorrow if I wanted to and spend all the money on hookers and blow.
Doesn't make it legitimate.
your excerpting my post to your advantage is lying...
The author is the son-in-law of Bill Kristol.
Huh? I voted for Trump twice, and Iāll do so again if heās the nominee. But I hope he isnāt because I want to win. We donāt owe politicians our loyalty; itās the reverse. Theyāre public servants.
By the way, I donāt know where to ask, but do I need a photo hosting site to post a pic on my profile? I havenāt found a way to do it from my camera roll. Apologies for the hijack.
Yep. I mentioned this disclaimer in my first post.
I actually like Continetti. And unlike many #NeverTrumpers, he's at least honest enough to prefer Trump over Biden.
This article was less a praise of Trump's resurgence and more of a warning to the other #NeverTrumpers to not discount him.
Trump isn't out of the game. Not by a long shot.
As a DeSantis supporter, I'm under no illusions that Trump will be an easy adversary in the primaries. He's still the frontrunner. But as an American, I'd be happy if either man wins.
If Trump earns the primary (and he's going to have to earn it), I will support him wholeheartedly. But, I'm gonna call him out on his bullish*t as well.
I agree except this is for the nomination. Plus trump is so fixated by head count. Nobody cared how many were at the inauguration but he made a point of grumbling about it.
Politics? After all of the crazy talk and lies? Really?
Remember:
* Elections are all rigged, and we can’t win!
* The Russians, Iranians, North Koreans and all are our friends!
* Everything is a vast, all encompassing conspiracy, and everyone is in on it!
* Q!
[All irony and sarcasm there.]
Yeah. Politics. Right. Sure.
No!
Oh, and THE VAXXXXXXX! Everyone who was vaxed is dead. Really!
@ @ <-———[Crazy eyes]
Just no.
Yeah, I got two doses of Moderna back in March of 2021. No boosters.
I'm still waiting to "die unexpectedly" with the shakes and the frothing at the mouth, etc...
agree the republicans have the votes in az. but they had the votes in az in 2022. dems just stole that one. now the dems control the state elections in az nv and pa. no chance even good candidates can win.
the problem is not the candidates is the process. dems run circles around the repubs on process.
Certainly not. He's actually in the driver's seat to get the nomination, right now, as proven by how a strong majority of his supporters are still hanging on, despite him pushing not just vaccines but boosters, having gay parties (probably orgies in some of those rooms) at his resort, basically deflating the red wave by letting his ego overshadow the actual election, tweeting the Constitution needs to be thrown out so he can be installed as the 2020 winner, etc. As long as that block holds strong, despite these absurd missteps that would have destroyed anyone else, a divided field stands no chance against him.
There are some wildcards, such as if opposition to him quickly unifies behind a single competitor, whether he gets indicted or not, how much of his own money he's willing to spend, and last but not least, his health. This is a 75+ year old man, who's famous for being vaxxed, boosted, and often eating KFC, McDonalds, and Diet Coke.
But right now it looks like Trump will win the nomination, just like McConnell, McCarthy, and McDaniel all got their expected positions already. Same old same old. But, I don't think he stands a chance in the General Election. He's done nothing to correct voting fraud in the toss up states, despite having hundreds of millions donated to him for that exact purpose. His pro-homo agenda will be a good excuse for Peter Buttplugg's sinful lifestyle, or his son's relationship with Newsome's ex will be used to show he's not such a bad guy either, which are the two most likely candidates he will face. Worst case, he has to take on Ms. Obama, and Trump will be an easy smear as a racist, sexist, abuser of women.
He'll be destroyed in the general, and our causes such as the outrageous spending and debt, the dangers of gain of function, uncontrolled Big Pharma, the horrible sin of sodomy, ever securing the election, or the border, will all go down with him. Even if he wins, based on his last term, not sure much would be done about those issues anyway. Sure we got a tax cut, and a few miles of wall, but little else remains that is good.
This is what we're facing. So many think the more they love Trump, the more likely it is he will do the right thing, but in reality, it's exactly the opposite. He's got them so fooled a huge portion won't even vote for anyone else, if Trump loses the nomination. That fact, is the main reason I think DeSantis may not even attempt a run this time. Once Trump leaves a smoking hole, he can then ride in to save the day. That may happen as part of the primary this year, but more likely after the general.
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