Which systems are being squandered in Ukraine?
Its best to be specific.
IMHO China CAN out-manufacture the US, if it gets the chance to do that. But an East Asian Naval-Air war this year will leave China with no Navy. China can’t protect its assets, either warships or shipyards. And it will instantly lose nearly all its trade, through distant blockade, seizure and “freezing”. China can’t protect its trade.
US Naval losses aren’t likely to be enormous. The USN just needs to stay a certain distance off the China coast. The US still has a great strategic recon advantage.
In return China can cause great trade losses to its neighbors, from Singapore to Japan.
The outcome is probably going to be a stalemate - China won’t be able to land a hit, while losing its fleet, in harbor or at sea, while taking severe economic damage, while in turn inflicting great economic damage. A quick ceasefire is the likely outcome.
The interesting part will be what happens during the resulting “peace”. There will be a period of intense military buildup, a real arms race.
“US Naval losses aren’t likely to be enormous. The USN just needs to stay a certain distance off the China coast. The US still has a great strategic recon advantage.”
A few in this thread have said similar things.
What you’re all missing is that China has focused on area denial for the surrounding region. The DF-21 missile is a repurposed (hypersonic) ICBM that’s considered a viable threat to US ships out to 1200 miles. It’s launched from mobile launchers, so not easy to take out either.
US carrier aircraft can’t strike from that distance without aerial refueling.
China has also developed a very long range air-to-air missile, carried by their stealthy J-20 fighters. It’s primarily designed to destroy our quite vulnerable tanker aircraft.
Our long-range bombers are likely to be our best asset. One B-1 can carry up to 24 LRASMs (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile). Those could do some serious damage to the Chinese surface fleet. Our subs are of limited utility in the shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait.
As to any ‘recon advantage’, China is actively working on ways to defeat our satellites. I wouldn’t count on many remaining viable for any length of time.
The approach should be to heavily arm Taiwan with mobile anti-ship and anti-air missiles, making it next to impossible for China to land assault forces. That said, Taiwan faces a large force of conventional ballistic missiles that China could try to use to force capitulation.
I hope this conflict doesn’t happen, it’ll be horrific if it does - not to mention it being a huge hit for the world economy. It could also very easily go nuclear, just as could happen with Ukraine.
One viable strategy would be to sink or impound China’s cargo fleet on the first day.