It is getting clearer every day.
Ukraine 1991-2023 RIP
In before the Zeeper Reeeeeing ensues!
“voluntarily withdraw from west bank Kherson in the first week of November,”
Is that what you call it when a massive army with superior numbers and equipment is crashing towards your position?
There is a lot of truth in this piece and it does not make one a “Putinista” to admit it. The author is objective and brings up good points.
Assuming that the Russian Federation can get their guys to fight, the same adage remains true - “quantity has a quality all its own”.
The last two months have been disastrous for the Ukrainians because the Russians are applying the hard lessons of last year to find what works and identify what/who did not. Russia is NOT taking the casualties they previously did when they tried their ineffective “blitzkrieg” that looked like a total $hit show last spring. They are using their best asset (artillery) to great effect to degrade the Ukrainian forces in trench lines while they regroup and make changes.
They are removing ineffective and impotent senior officers, promoting capable junior officers, AND they are doing the same in their “NCO corps”. Anyone who has worn the uniform knows that a capable commander along with solid senior NCO’s can make a huge difference in any units effectiveness.
They are consolidating their logistics trains closer to home and working out the systemic problems they had with resupply and maintenance. The war revealed a LOT of corruption in their supply system and that has been rooted out. Putin is ruthless and I suspect that “diverting” supplies from the poor bastards at the front is now a fatal mistake.
The Ukrainians are in a bad spot. They are holding a line awaiting the expected Russian offensive but they are paying too much to do it. They do not have the reserves that Russia does and IF they are seen to be suffering defeat the West will likely withdraw the aid they rely on so they have no choice but to sit in the mud and get shelled (not the kind of action they excelled at last year). If I were Putin I would not be in a rush to change the current dynamic even when the weather becomes more favorable to a new offensive.
I expect the Russians to be better than they were last year when it really ramps up again. How could they not be? This kind of grinding warfare favors the Russian strength (dumb artillery) and it leaves the Ukrainians exposed to the favorite Russian tactic and playbook from WWII - pincer movements where they can bite off manageable chunks, encircle Ukrainian forces, and back it all up with massive artillery against counter-attacks or along lines of tactical withdrawal.
The Ukrainians did better than expected last year but time was never on their side. They don’t have the strength to advance nor do they have the forces to hold the current lines. They have been drawn into the type of battle that favors Russia.
LOL No army successfully "pulverises" an entrenched, built-up defense system because it can't be done. It's too big and provides enough protection to enough troops that the offense suffers huge losses for tiny gains. It's even worse in an urban environment as the ruins provide good cover.
The current fighting around Bakhmut closely resembles last summer's Russian offensive in Donbas, but the territorial gains are much smaller because Ukraine has more artillery and is much better at using it. What's Prigozhin going to do when he runs out of convicts?
Nice analysis. I hadn’t heard of Schelling points before. They make sense. When one hears all this talk of Russia and China collapsing, it discounts the inherent strength of existing systems - the Schelling points as it were.
What ever happened to that great article Game Changing Russia?? Looks like someone did not like this article and pulled it. Hmmmm I wonder if we have censorship at work?