Miami projected to rise 1-2%, Austin to fall 16%.
That smacks of market manipulation at a high level.
Don’t expect much of a “fall,” and when/if prices back off, it won’t be much and affordability will still be an issue given the economy and interest rates.
This is an imflationary, not another “bubble.” The last inflationary cycle took over a decade to fix - and America wasn’t nearly as stupid and devolved as we are now.
Good article—bottom line:
—Interest rates are much higher than they were a year ago.
—Home prices/median income are at record highs.
—There are tons of vacation homes, rental homes, homes owned by hedge funds which add record instability to the housing market. These homes can be dumped on the market at any time.
Everything is in place for a record breaking housing price crash.
That does not mean it will happen with 100% certainty but all the pieces are there.
What’s coming is by design.
It won’t be pretty.
We have been looking for another home in a different part of the state wher we live. The prices and the bidding wars over the last 2 years has been ridiculous. I’m not over paying or getting into a biding contest over a house. I am however see some downward movement on prices these last few months as people begin to realize that their house isn’t selling...higher interest rates are a big factor.
Inventory is typically lower during the winter months. Come spring time it will be enlightening as to where the housing market will be when homes are listed and at what prices. The days of over pricing I think have ended and realistic prices will be happening. You can ask whatever you want for a house...and I can offer what I’m willing to pay. We will see if that will holds true this year.
Thank you Captain Obvious
Sorry, could not resist being a smart A$$
I came across a YouTube channel about 12 months ago called Reventure Consulting. He was the first to call for a correction in the general real estate market in the country.
This was when most people were still saying it was going up forever.
The first cracks appeared in markets like Boise. This was a pretty obvious call because real estate prices in Boise had doubled in less than 3 years. All because the mass exodus from CA & Seattle.
The exodus from CA was driving the increase in all western states plus TX and FL even. The exodus from NY, NJ, CT, IL & MI was fueling the market increases in FL, SC, ME, NH, VT, TN, KY, TX and others.
Now, prices are dropping in multiple places. So, if you can not sell your house in San Fran, you typically can not afford to buy a house in Austin.
FL was the number one state that people moved to in 2022. NY was the number one place they left. This and the 4 point increase in mortgage rates has the largest effect on demand.
However, that does not mean that Houston is going to go down as much as Austin.
The same thing could be said in Knoxville vs. Nashville.
FYI, Reventure Consulting stopped posting YouTube videos a few months ago. He was a calling for as much as a 50% correction in some markets. Time will tell.
As a lumber broker I can tell you that the price of lumber/osb is back down to the same levels(wholesale) as it was a few years ago. Roughly 25% of it all time highs in 2021. However, the costs to produce lumber has gone up just like all other commodities. Therefore, do not expect Anderson, Pella, Jeldwen, or Marvin to drop the price of their windows and doors. I bought a Marvin sliding patio door yesterday because there is a 5% increase going in today. Six foot Elevate sliding patio door $2095 delivered to my house in NH. CHAA CHING!
Lack of inventory is keeping prices steady in Atlanta.
I’m just sitting in my cheap 500 square feet apartment with plenty of time and money to spend waiting for the housing market to collapse.
IF it was up to me(Mrs. Woodbutcher is not keen on the idea) I would buy a retirement home in ITALY. Nice houses and thousands of apartments are available in south central Italy for under $200K Euros(1EU = $1.08 US) So, 200EU = $216 US)
This does not mean you are going to buy a villa on Lake Como cheap. Out in the countryside away from the sea are where the deals are. However, you can by apartments walking distance to the Adriatic/Med for under $200EU.
What if a person has bad credit, what if a person’s income is not sufficient to make monthly mortgage payments, what if the property is in bad shape and not worth loaning money against?
I'm speaking to single home owners here specifically, not those who are in the real estate business.
A single home owner basically buys a home to have a place to live and build equity instead of paying rent to some other owner. Once you have that place to live, you are set, with a fixed mortgage for 30, 20, 15 years, etc.
It should really not matter to you at that point what happens with home prices. You are going to pay that monthly mortgage no matter what the price of your home is assessed to be at a given time.
If you need to move and home prices are low, you make up for it on the other side of the transaction. Yes, you got less for your home than you wanted to, but you should also be buying your next home at a similarly reduced pricepoint.
Same if the housing prices skyrocket. Yes, you got a nice windfall selling your home in an up market, but guess what, you are going to pay through the nose for your new home, so in the end, it's really a wash either way.
The only people that should worry are those who bought a home with little or no downpayment (making them upside down in a down market) or pulling equity out of their homes for other things like remodeling or vacations.
... and likely even faster than FJB's mental capacity ... though certainly not as far.