Posted on 01/11/2023 6:42:36 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide
While Western pundits (I think shills is a more apt description) and media continue to insist that Ukraine is pounding the snot out of Russia, the facts on the ground in Soledar and Bahkmut tell a different story.
Before delving into the specifics of the Russian advance, let me highlight some buffoonery from Niall Ferguson, born in Scotland and living in the United States. Ferguson is a Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University:
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
I remember being worried when Ukraine lost Izyum.
The reality then as it is now is that a Ukraine invest minimal resources in these urban swamps, keeping their main force behind the lines training and preparing for large offensives.
It will be the success or failure of the next Ukrainian offensive that matters.
Soledar is 5.5 square miles with a prewar population of about 10,500. Bakmut is 16 square miles with a prewar population of about 71,000. The Russians and Ukrainians are bleeding out over very little territory, muck like trench warfare in WWI.
I told another freeper this morning that we can occupy a country for decades and lose a few thousand guys, over there they lose hundreds of thousands in less than a year. Verdun 2023
And this take is based on what? Ze refuses the military requests to leave the area because any defeat is going to ruin his victorious propaganda. They probably suffered 25-30,000 KIA around Bakhmut for near zero Russian losses.
You need to pick an enemy that doesn’t fight back for this purpose.
Ummm:
It's not just Ferguson providing buffoonery.
The Bakhmut offensive reminds me of Russia's summer offensive: some ground gained but the enormous cost meant the offensive stalled and left Russian forces vulnerable to Ukrainian assault elsewhere.
This claim is simply ludicrous: " Ukraine is so short of personnel that it is forcibly mobilizing 16 year old boys and 60 year old men.".
The Russians clearly think they can win a war of attrition, but it's not clear they can.
The Russians clearly think they can win a war of attrition, but it’s not clear they can.
Quote by Joseph Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”
True, but exactly how much quantity can Putin extract? He doesn’t have Stalin’s instruments of repression. The population ratio is only 4:1. If Ukraine kills 5:1 (not difficult for a defender) they still win.
Bakhmut sits astride key transportation corridors, much like Bastogne in WW II. They are essential for Ukrainian forces to resupply. The small size of the area belies the strategic importance of the location.
good article,thanks
Zeepers are likely wetting their pants today since most of Soledar has been captured. Some 200-500 ukes are surrounded there and retreat routes are cut off.More important are the advances near Krasna Gora where the main supply road from Bakmud to Siversk has been cut off.. Russian forces are nearing an intersebtion that will cut off supplies from Slavansk to Bakmut. Can’t wait for Zeepers to tell us how unimportant that is-LOL....
Recent updates from neutral warmapper DPA..
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Encirclement of Ukraine troops; retreat road threatened @ Silj & Krasnopolivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAJy3w24GX4
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Bakhmut northern retreat route closing; Soledar encirclement
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oidaADjRcvY
“And this take is based on what?”
Here is a question for you. Where is the Ukrainian Army? It has 500K to 1 million men. Only 50K are engaged in Bakhmut. Another portion is defending other fronts, but the vast majority has not been active since Kherson.
Logically they are either:
1) Preparing another large set of offensives
2) Waiting for a deluded Putin to send a wave of untrained conscripts in his own offensive
Except of illogical dim wit media propaganda, what this perception is based on?
If Ze has a ‘trained’ 1 million army, why do they grab 60 years olds through the ninth wave of mobilization? Why do they ask countries receiving their refugees to support conscription and why do they constantly beg for equipment?:)
What untrained Russian conscripts?:) Russian army annually admits and discharged about as much as they called, who are a previous service troops.
“why do they grab 60 years olds through the ninth wave of mobilization”
Was it an army of 60 year old women who retook Izyum and Kherson?
That is unrelated, not to mention that these armies suffered around 60% casualties. A lot happened since Kherson.
“near zero Russian losses”?
This is perhaps the most delusional statement of the entire war.🙄
Do you realize the scale of Russian advantage in firepower? How one is suffering heavy losses in the long range war of attrition?
So is your theory that the twin armies that took Kherson and Kharkiv no longer exist?
I do hope the Russian generals think the same. It would be an event to watch their winter offensive push into Ukraine expecting no resistance.
Harkov is actually nothing to be proud of. There was an artillery unit, two SWAT teams and a national guard unit plus the regiment of militia of it 90% are freshly recruited locals.
To force them out by ten times the force is a so-so achievement.
"Win what?"... Have you seen what that country looks like? It all depends on what happens after everyone gets tired of dying or sending their sons to die......
Does Lebanon look like a victorious country, How does Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan look... after "war" nobody wins except the survivors that are allowed to crawl over the ruins and try to rebuild....and the men in charge of the piles of rubble.
I don't know what the KD Kill/death ratio is for Ukes v Ruskies... but I do know that Putin doesn't give a sh#t what the "polls show"... He will just let artillery/drones/bombs/missles make Ukraine a pile of rocks.... then make the rocks bounce around for awhile. Then put up some barrior to keep NATO rockets out of Ukraine.
Moldova better get ready as well as the Baltics. But EVERYONE KNOWS that Russia isn't stupid enough to attack another country. Just ask the geniuses at the State Dept or DOD.
As for his "instruments of repression".... well let me ask you a question...Who is going to stand up to him and say, "Nyet"?
Think about this....What are our governments "instruments of repression"? What are any government's "instruments of repression".
As long as a man will collect a paycheck, go home safely, plan on a pension and surround himself with like-minded individual... well a man can kill and destroy about anyone, can't he? Power tends to centralize and needs fear in order to keep the sheep herded together..... every once in awhile, one needs to be killed in order for the other sheep to know that they have no power...We have that, China has it, Russia has that, ALL governments have that...
Let's sit and think about our great representative republic with rule of law and bill of rights....... It's not like some rogue FBI agent is going to go crazy....It's not like He could shoot a mom holding a baby after shooting her son in the back and killing him.....or burn dozens of children alive using tanks and snipers to "save them".
Fear of the boot stomping down your door and locking you in a digital prison... no job, no bank account, no way to travel without your "papers".... you don't need a "supermax" to lock anyone away.... fear and control of your place in society are what can be used to repress you.
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