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The Russo-Ukrainian war ten months in: taking stock
Riddle ^ | Dec. 28, 2022 | Michael Kofman

Posted on 12/31/2022 8:38:03 AM PST by Salohcin

Following Ukraine’s successful offensives in the fall, the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted into a transitional phase, with both sides engaged in positional battles characterized by incremental gains and attrition. Although the tempo of fighting appears to have slowed down, in part due to the onset of winter, it remains intense along several parts of the front. The coming months could determine the course of events well into 2023. This phase may be transitional and is not necessarily how the winter will play out, as Ukraine is likely eyeing opportunities for another offensive operation, but the broad contours of Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategy appear visible. The Russian military appears to be entrenching, focused on reconstitution, while elements continue fighting for Bakhmut. Ukraine seeks to maintain pressure on Russian lines to prevent a consolidation of the front and avert a Russian recovery coming out of the winter.

(Excerpt) Read more at ridl.io ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: blueandyellowpompoms; kickbacks; lootingthetreasury; moneylaundering; notourwar; russia; ukraine; war
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Here is a long but interesting analysis on the Russo-Ukrainian War. It shows is very balanced and highlights the difficulties that both sides will face in prosecuting the war during the coming year.
1 posted on 12/31/2022 8:38:03 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: Salohcin

I’m not sure who is winning, but I know who is losing: the American taxpayer.


2 posted on 12/31/2022 8:39:53 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: kosciusko51
I’m not sure who is winning, but I know who is losing: the American taxpayer.

I'm pretty sure I know who is losing: Innocent Ukrainian civilians in kindergartens, nursing homes, and apartment buildings - rocket-bombed by Putin's Russia.

Also: The approx. 100,000 (and growing) Russian troops whom Putin has fed into the meat grinder.

Also: The international reputation of the Russian military.

But bucks? What the American taxpayer has invested in systematically dismantling Russia's ability to wage war is the best bargain we've had since the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the East Bloc.

Regards,

3 posted on 12/31/2022 8:52:02 AM PST by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: kosciusko51

For those who ask:
“Why does Ukraine matter to the world?“
Why does Putin want Ukraine for himself?

This is why Ukraine matters:
It is the second largest country by area in Europe and has a population of over 40 million - more than Poland.

Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world’s reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe’s 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world’s largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Finally the people of Ukraine deserve to live free and exercise their right of religious freedom. Russia desires to crush them, exterminate them and steal their country for its resources. Therefore, in every way Ukraine matters to the free world. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the free world.

This is why every free country fights to defeat Putin’s Rashist army and free Ukraine.

Americans used to fight for freedom, now they only fight over spending money.


4 posted on 12/31/2022 8:53:37 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: alexander_busek
I'm pretty sure I know who is losing: Innocent Ukrainian civilians in kindergartens, nursing homes, and apartment buildings - rocket-bombed by Putin's Russia.

And the UA is shelling apartment buildings in Donetsk City as I type this. But shhh, we don't anyone to know that.

5 posted on 12/31/2022 8:59:47 AM PST by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: Salohcin
There is no stalemate on the ground, and neither side is willing to revise its minimal war aims. Ukraine has been winning since August. A ceasefire at this stage would largely benefit Russia. Past experience suggests Moscow will use it to reconstitute forces after several months, and renew the war.
6 posted on 12/31/2022 9:00:25 AM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: PIF

“Americans used to fight for freedom, now they only fight over spending money.”

I would be willing to fight for America’s freedom and secure borders, but I live in a country with feckless grifters at the helm, who are daily placing the US and the world in existential danger by bankrupting the country. And you think spending money in Ukraine is helpful? If America is to be the world’s police, it needs to be secure first. I’m sorry you cannot see that.


7 posted on 12/31/2022 9:02:32 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: alexander_busek

Bargain, really? A bargain would have been using that amount of money to secure the US border and deporting the illegal invaders of the United States.

Another bargain would have been the EU financing the whole operation with US $$$. But hell is likely to freeze over before Europe ever pays their fair share...


8 posted on 12/31/2022 9:07:01 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: kosciusko51

... without US $$$...


9 posted on 12/31/2022 9:08:15 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: PIF

Well said.


10 posted on 12/31/2022 9:12:48 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: alexander_busek
I'm pretty sure I know who is losing: Innocent Ukrainian civilians in kindergartens, nursing homes, and apartment buildings - rocket-bombed by Putin's Russia.

Or somebody. And that sucks. I hate that regular Ukrainian citizens are having to suffer that way.

But giving our tax dollars to the greasy green t-shirt guy isn’t going to help the innocent citizens one bit. It hasn’t and the mincing little grifter has no intention to use that money to help them.

11 posted on 12/31/2022 9:14:08 AM PST by Allegra
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To: Allegra

Our tax dollars are going to support the Ukrainians maintain their independence from a larger neighboring country that is bent on conquest and the destruction of the Ukrainian national identity. This faux concern about US tax dollars would have had the US not providing aid to Britain, China, and Russia against the aggression of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan during WW2.


12 posted on 12/31/2022 9:21:29 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: Salohcin

If you believe that, I have some prime swampland in Louisiana (that’s here in the U.S.) I’d like to sell you.


13 posted on 12/31/2022 9:23:12 AM PST by Allegra
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To: alexander_busek

Preposterous dreck and nonsense. Learn what the word investment means - it is PRODUCTIVE, not like the endless, wasteful, draining of billions America cannot afford. War is NOT an investment, it is a horrific waste of treasure, blood and life.

Second, Ukrainian civilians’ suffering could all have been avoided by negotiating and bringing the war to a close. Ukraine chose to fight, not to negotiate or surrender. That brings death and suffering, it’s war. This also goes for the deaths of Russian soldiers. War kills people, duh.

The reputation of the Russian military, what do we care? Honestly, who CARES? Apart from the Russkies.


14 posted on 12/31/2022 9:50:39 AM PST by libertarian66
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To: kosciusko51

5% of our defense budget is being put to good use in defense of democracy

Ukraine is willing t fight and die for democracy so we don’t have to in the future


15 posted on 12/31/2022 9:50:58 AM PST by Sunsong
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To: libertarian66

Yes, just think about all of the suffering that could have been avoided if Stalin had surrendered to Hitler or if China ha surrendered to Imperial Japan. 🙄


16 posted on 12/31/2022 9:53:58 AM PST by Salohcin
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To: PIF

None of your stats matter a damn because no matter what Ukraine has, that doesn’t justify the West fighting a war. Those assets are Ukraine’s, the West has no say over them nor any justification in fighting over them.

Now, where do you get your claims that Russia wishes to exterminate the Ukraine? It wishes to annex the Donestk and surrounding areas, plus keep Crimea. Where do you go from there to “extermination”? Get your facts straight.

As for Ukraine living “free”, it is a dictatorship with one party rule by an oligarch dictator. Where is the freedom exactly? Massive shutdown of political opposition, a fake election/Orange revolution, banning of Russian language and culture - dude WHAT FREEDOM?? Ukraine is Russia in drag. Zelensky is Putin with a shittier wardrobe.

Russia is bad. Ukraine is bad. Stay out of their fight. So simple even YOU can understand.


17 posted on 12/31/2022 9:56:53 AM PST by libertarian66
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To: Sunsong

I would rather see that 5% used to preserve our constitution republic by securing our borders and expelling the illegal invaders.


18 posted on 12/31/2022 9:57:02 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: Salohcin

Not the same. Putinist Russia isn’t Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany. Not even close. . Ridiculous, ahistorical and completely ignorant comparisons. You need to study at least a LITTLE history and politics before putting your foot in your mouth.


19 posted on 12/31/2022 9:58:35 AM PST by libertarian66
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To: Salohcin

the difficulties that both sides will face in prosecuting the war during the coming yearS.


20 posted on 12/31/2022 9:58:42 AM PST by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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