Posted on 12/24/2022 8:54:51 AM PST by Kazan
You are a really creepy piece of work.
“Yeah we crossed a line with the whole Russian army invading Ukraine.”
No, we crossed the line, it is RUSSIA’s BACKYARD. No different than us setting up bases in Taiwan.
“You are a really creepy piece of work.”
I’m not the one making claims about what someone said without being able to BACK IT UP.
Hahaha there you go also supporting China
I hope we do put bases on Taiwan
But first let’s roast more of your Russian pigs.
How does it feel watching those pigs retreat as they were slaughtered.
I love it.
I have to laugh, how many of your Russians are dead and can’t even defeat frigging Ukraine.
Must be embarrassing.
“Hahaha there you go also supporting China. I hope we do put bases on Taiwan.”
You have a FUNNY definition of ‘support’. But yes, if you guys also want a war with China, try putting some bases there and see what happens.
“I have to laugh, how many of your Russians are dead and can’t even defeat frigging Ukraine.”
The days of fighting Ukraine ended in mid-March, you EVERYONE here, including yourself, knows it.
So how does it have to feel to lie, just to put food on your table?
Hahaha Putin is such a nice guy he decided to retreat after over a hundred thousand dead and a year of slaughtering his own pathetic troops.
No wonder no one cares about his “red line”. The red was Russian blood.
“Hahaha Putin is such a nice guy he decided to retreat after over a hundred thousand dead”
Link please.
Then I guess you admit we are now kicking Russia’s ass? Putin shouldn’t have crossed our red line.
And more kook talk from you that people supporting America are being “paid”.
Glad your Russian pigs were put in their place. No matter what else, we know many many more of the pigs will die and fertilize Ukraine soil.
And some of your pigs are now dying in Russia. Splendid.
Merry Christmas to you and to all the DEAD RUSSIANS.
“Then I guess you admit we are now kicking Russia’s ass?”
In your sweet mind.
We?
“And more kook talk from you that people supporting America are being “paid”.”
Most here don’t consider SUPPORTING BIDEN’S WAR to be ‘Supporting America’.
“Merry Christmas to you and to all the DEAD RUSSIANS.”
Do you think of Jews that way? After all they’re likely different than you too?
China will be happy to provide them with weapons in exchange for cheap gas. What Russia doesn’t have is morale and sobriety.
Merry Christmas to you Atlantis%!
Merry Christmas to you Bobble!
You are correct to ask for links in support of my negative take on the Russian economy. Macroeconomics is one of those complicated subjects that invites opinion from all comers but requires a high degree of knowledge and expertise to genuinely understand. That being so, it is usually best to look to credentialed experts who offer detailed assessments.
The best such expert analysis of Russia's current economic circumstances that I have found is at Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy. Here is the cite and abstract:
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
118 Pages Posted: 20 Jul 2022 Last revised: 2 Aug 2022
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Yale School of Management; Steven Tian, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute; Franek Sokolowski, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute; Michal Wyrebkowski, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute; Mateusz Kasprowicz, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Date Written: July 19, 2022
Abstract
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.
That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.
From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:
- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.
- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy.
- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst - As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood.
- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy.
Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.
Download the visual slide deck accompanying this research monograph here.
Click here to read a brief summary of our research in Foreign Policy.
As to the inadequacy of Russia’s logistics and military industrial base, there are many media and intelligence reports of how badly equipped Russian troops are in Ukraine due to supply issues. And, in a sign of desperation, Russia recently purchased drones and other military supplies from Iran and North Korea.
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