So consumer confidence is up? But with the jobs numbers fudged, it's hard to think that will last

American Thinker ^ | 12/22/2022 | Monica Showalter

[SeekAndFind]

Here's a chart of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey over the last five years. Not only did we get a nice jump (as seen in the white line) it substantially beat the median expectations (the yellow line). In fact the size of the beat was the largest since the middle of 2021 (as seen in the second panel).

The decline in gasoline prices is indeed likely a factor -- and was brought on by Biden's emptying of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Declining inflation expectations certainly can be derived from falling energy prices given that so many prices on consumer goods have a chained connection to higher energy prices, but the real actor here wasn't Joe Biden and his gas releases, but the Federal Reserve, which hiked benchmark interest rates seven times this year.

That explains the consumer sentiment towards avoiding big purchase items, as well as the reluctance of home buyers to buy houses. Sales of existing homes plummeted 7.7% on the month in a separate report cited, while on an annualized basis were down a whopping 35.4%. Housing has nothing to do with oil and everything to do with the prime rate from which mortgages are issued. The Fed suggests in its statements that it's got a ways to go on the hikes, and will keep hiking.

[Roccus]

Why believe ANY numbers put out by the government about ANYTHING?

Even conclusions put out by non govt entities get their data from the government.

Remember, in a match race between A and B, while A may have come in second, B finished next to last!

[SaxxonWoods]

It’s ALL about the price of gas. which is based on the price of oil, which is the biggest driver of inflation, not the price of groceries, which are properly not used in inflation calculations because they jump around too much.

But people fixate on grocery prices and ignore the prices of thousands of other products. This leads them to overestimate inflation.

[jpp113]

This morning...outskirts of Lala land...9.99 for a stinking quart of Dino Pennzoil 10w-30

[SaxxonWoods]

“Why believe ANY numbers put out by the government about ANYTHING?”

Because those numbers are the basis of their decisions which tells you what to expect and how to be ready to react. You think policy is going to be influenced by the numbers citizens just make up out of thin air?

[WVNan]

Consumer confidence is up!!! Well, I think it’s called Halloween and Christmas.

[Brian Griffin]

My Walmart never underestimates or overestimates inflation.

[SaxxonWoods]

“This morning...outskirts of Lala land...9.99 for a stinking quart of Dino Pennzoil 10w-30.”

The price of this ONE thing tells me everything I need to know about inflation.
/s

[Brian Griffin]

If the bank pays 4% and Sam’s offspring raise prices 7%, I’m down 3% in buying power for the year.

[SaxxonWoods]

“My Walmart never underestimates or overestimates inflation.”

There’s my whole problem right there. I haven’t been in a Walmart in years.

[Brian Griffin]

I believe the prices Aldi posts.

Chicken breasts $5.45 under Trump now $9.99 under Biden.

[SaxxonWoods]

If inflation is higher than you are being told, and you don’t like that, then you want interest rates to be MUCH higher.

[SaxxonWoods]

That has nothing to do with “inflation”. That has to do with 50 million dead chickens form bird flu.

[Brian Griffin]

gasoline prices:

It’s sort of hard to travel in much of the northern US right now.

Greta has cause to be happy, but snow makes travel difficult.

[SaxxonWoods]

Gas(oil) prices are the best indicator of future/pressent inflation since the price of oil affects everything we buy.

[Brian Griffin]

The lifecycle of a poultry chicken is short.

[SaxxonWoods]

And replacing them right now is hard.

[griswold3]

But but but 3rd Qtr GDP was revised up to 3.2% in sign of economic strength.

[SaxxonWoods]

Just looked it up, life of chickens is influenced by care. They live 4-10 years.

[SaxxonWoods]

“But but but 3rd Qtr GDP was revised up to 3.2% in sign of economic strength.”

That means much higher interest rates are coming.