Posted on 12/20/2022 11:23:04 AM PST by dennisw
Concerns over a new multi-front Russian offensive in Ukraine are legitimate but exaggerated.
Lukashenko is deeply hesitant to participate in Putin's war. The dictator has so far resisted significant pressure from Putin to join. Lukashenko recognizes the battlefield crisis facing Russia and wants to avoid further Western sanctions against his struggling country's economy.
Even if he is an odd character, Lukashenko is not stupid. He knows that the war unpopular in Belarus, and the Belorussian military is relatively small. If the Belorussian military enters the war and suffers major losses, Lukashenko risks losing his means of controlling restive population. That opens the door to a successful new revolution. Even as Putin ups the pressure, probably with personal threats, Lukashenko likely views joining the war as an equally existential risk.
Putin described the Monday meeting as "very productive" and Lukashenko made similar comments. But only on Friday did Lukashenko offer a strident rebuke of the suggestion that he would allow Belarus to become a formally subordinated vassal of Putin's greater union state agenda. Lukashenko observed "despite all the difficulties, if the leadership of the Russian Federation wants to build relations with the sovereign and independent state of Belarus, if Russia perceives us as a sovereign and independent state...we are ready to build such relationships. We must always proceed from the fact that we are a sovereign and independent state." This is not the language of a leader cowed by Putin.
Lukashenko's strategy towards Russia appears to remain centered in a calibrated effort to maintain critical economic ties with Russia by doing just enough to keep Putin from pushing him out of power. Lukashenko also likely still bets that Putin's deepening challenge in Ukraine and concern over a Western government taking power in Belarus mean that Russia won't risk overthrowing him.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Belarus is like East Germany in 1989.
May Belarus continue to ignore putin’s requests.
May they act in the best interest of their citizens
50 active and retired CIA analysts have said so.
“Even if he is an odd character, Lukashenko is not stupid.”
Lukashenko has survived for 30 years by acting like a harmless buffoon.
But he has played Putin like a country fiddle for years now.
Belarus will likely join the Russian Federation in 2023, rendering Western soyboi threats to depose Luka meaningless while at the same giving Russia a strategic advantage over Ukraine (and Poland).
You seem happy about that.
Regards,
It appears you are anti-American, you people have really gone dark.
Putin is bringing Belarus military up to Russian standards (sic) for the expected huge Western attack on Belarus, whose military is being trained to launch tactical nukes from is fighter jets.
This expected battle will happen on Belarus soil and far from Moscow and the southern Urals. Belarus troops are expected to die for Russia since they are considered Russians by Putin.
“”giving Russia a strategic advantage over Ukraine (and Poland).””
You should share your hopes with our V Corps GIs that Trump stationed in Poland, I don’t think they share your anti-Americanism.
The American people are firmly opposed to war and want to live peacefully in this world, but the corrupt corporate/political/media elites don’t care...and frankly brainwashed idiots like you are part of the problem.
Where did you learn to question someone’s patriotism whenever they don’t parrot the elite’s endless war narrative?
Who taught you that loathsome behavior?
Let our troops know your feelings about the enemy they face in Europe, I don’t think they will call you patriotic to America, but they will call you a traitor that supports the enemy they face.
Let them know that you support the enemy gaining a “strategic advantage” over them at their Poland headquarters.
What a deceitful weasel...reminds me of this guy.
>
You are really far gone.
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for December 21, 2022:
- Pentagon admits Russia is gaining ground in Bakhmut; - Zelensky visit to Bakhmut mirrors similar visit to Lysychansk before it fell to Russian forces;
- Western media admits Russia has Ukraine outgunned 6 to 1 in Bakhmut;
- Claims that Russian losses are as significant as catastrophic toll Ukraine is suffering in Bakhmut does not reflect reality if Russia outguns Ukraine significantly;
- Bakhmut is a significant transportation hub and a crucial fortified position along one of Ukraine's last major defensive lines in the east;
- The fall of Bakhmut may lead to a similar breakthrough like Popasna;
- Russian forces appear interested in destroying Ukraine's military at Bakhmut more than taking the city itself;
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