You compare Obama 2008 by county to JoeTatoe 2020 by county, then plot the percentages on a state map by county.
Then, you can see the hot spots.
You can also plot Obama 2008 by county compared to Cankles 2016, to see where they "fortified" a state for 2020.
You have to do 2008 to 2020 FIRST, then 2008 to 2016, otherwise there doesn't appear to be much correlation.
In this instance, I have compared the 2018 numbers to the 2022 numbers, and used my map from 2008-2020 to examine the hot-spot counties in 2022.
You also want to examine the non-hot-spot counties to see what the normalized Casey turnout versus Senatrix Gisele was.
This is a very visual tool, because you can't really see what's going on without the county map.
A by-precinct analysis would also be useful.
Finally, if you detect what looks like rigging [a huge gain over the Casey 2018 number], you have to figure that the real total is some percentage LESS than Casey 2018.
That's a rule of thumb.
There IS always the possibility that they actually Got Out The Vote in certain counties instead of Getting Out The Cheat.
Well I have no doubt they got out the vote… D’s ground game put the GOP to shame…
I also have no doubt fraud happened but don’t see any way in hell fraud was the cause for the loss.
OZ was just terrible off brand candidate. This wasn’t 2020… this was a candidate that even among the GOP faithful had no enthusiasm… there was nothing for him anywhere. Just a begrudging “at least he’s not Fetterman”…