Posted on 12/09/2022 9:07:42 PM PST by SeekAndFind
“This is a huge victory for Moscow over Washington,” former national security director John Bolton declared this morning on CBS. “It endangers other Americans in the future, who can be grabbed and used by bargaining chips,” he said of the swap of Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout, one of the world’s most dangerous men before his arrest and conviction.
Bolton also revealed in this clip that the Trump administration had an offer to trade Paul Whelan for Bout two years ago. They passed, and as Bolton says, “for very good reasons” (via Caleb Howe at Mediaite):
The 1-for-1 prisoner swap of Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout between the U.S. and Russia was a "very bad mistake," former Trump admin. National Security Adviser Amb. John Bolton says, calling it a "victory for Moscow over Washington."
"It endangers other Americans in the future" pic.twitter.com/ZwFFFaQKPJ
— CBS News (@CBSNews) December 8, 2022
Anne-Marie Green: Of course, you know, the reporting is — and I think it’s pretty obvious — I don’t think I have to say the reporting is that Brittney Griner was overcharged, that she was charged sort of akin to a drug trafficker to at least make it seem on paper like these two prisoners were equal. Can you tell me what you know about Viktor Bout and why the Russians would want him back so badly?
John Bolton: Well, I really can’t get into specifics, but I’ll just note that Paul Whelan, who was likewise set up by the Russians back in late 2018, so when I was at the White House, is still in custody. And I’ll just note the historical fact that the possibility of a Bout for Whelan trade existed back then, and it wasn’t made, for very good reasons having to deal with Viktor Bout.
But this is a huge victory for Moscow over Washington. And it’s the kind of thing that says to terrorists and rogue states and other malign actors who would consider kidnapping or seizing Americans, that we’re willing to trade almost anything to get Americans back. There are other ways to deal with hostage-takers through sanctions and other things, not swaps like this one.
Why didn’t the Trump administration agree to swap Bout? The so-called Merchant of Death still represents a massive threat to the US and its allies if he decides to go back into arms trafficking and supporting terror groups like FARC in South America, and reportedly the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the Middle East, not to mention terror networks in Africa and Asia. Bout’s age has been tough to pin down, but the best estimate is that he’s in his mid-50s — so he hasn’t aged out of the business.
And as Politico Pro reports today, even Biden administration officials worry that Bout will pick up where he left off after getting arrested in 2008:
Some Pentagon officials are concerned that convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was released on Thursday in a prisoner swap for American basketball star Brittney Griner, could return to illegally trafficking weapons, potentially fueling conflicts across the world.
While officials in the Pentagon applauded Griner’s release, some are worried about the impact of Bout’s return, particularly in Africa. Bout, nicknamed the “Merchant of Death,” was serving a 25-year prison sentence in the United States on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and aiding a terrorist organization.
“I think there is a concern that [he] would return to doing the same kind of work that he’s done in the past,” said one senior Defense Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
This isn’t an issue of partisanship, either. Senate Foreign Relations chair and New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez called the swap that released Bout both unbalanced and “deeply disturbing“:
“To be clear, Ms. Griner should have been released immediately and unconditionally a long time ago. Putin has known that all along. This should be a moment of deep reflection for the United States government to recognize we have a serious problem with hostage-taking of Americans. The Russians and other regimes that take American citizens hostage cannot pretend that there is equivalence between the Brittney Griners of the world and people like Viktor Bout, the so-called ‘Merchant of Death.’ Nothing could be further from the truth, and we cannot ignore that releasing Bout back into the world is a deeply disturbing decision. We must stop inviting dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans overseas as bargaining chips, and we must try to do better at encouraging American citizens against traveling to places like Russia where they are primary targets for this type of unlawful detention.[“]
That sounds a lot like John Bolton’s position, no?
One can understand why a Bout-for-Whelan swap would have interested either administration. Whether Whelan worked for US intelligence or not, their alleged crimes were at least categorically similar, even if their threat potential differed greatly. However, a trade of Bout for Griner is so far from parity that it almost seems like parody.
And the Russians have taken note, too:
A former adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday the prisoner swap that sent Brittney Griner back to the US in exchange for arms dealer Viktor Bout was a win for Moscow — and made America look weak.
“Putin outplayed Biden,” Sergei Markov wrote in a scathing post on his Telegram channel.
“We got back our spy, it seems, and gave away a normal girl,” he added.
Trading Bout for Whelan probably would be a win for Russia anyway, but this is a Bout rout. As Bolton points out, it demonstrates “just how desperate the administration was to make this deal.” Terror groups and warlords just got their arms supply bolstered, and the world got that much more dangerous — and the US didn’t get anything strategic or equitable in return.
The “Trump Administration” — but definitely not “Trump” /s
Bolton screwed the USA over then, now it bites us again.
Putin beat old Joey “White House” Crappy Pants again. Joey is an idiot.
We’re sending arms to Ukraine and an arms dealer to Russia.
RE: We’re sending arms to Ukraine and an arms dealer to Russia.
There’s a reason why Russia wants Viktor Bout out of prison — RUSSIA NEEDS ARMS ! Who better to provide it for Russia than an expert and successful arms dealer?
If that's your idea of normal - ayyy carumba!
Yes. Makes sense they want him, but no sense we traded him.
When you do a prisoner swap, you look for the swap to have benefits for both sides.
Bout was a huge fish, very connected, had national strategic importance. He also has lots of blood on his hands, including American blood.
Whelan was a Marine, but he was also a bad Marine with the Big Chicken Dinner on his record, and a criminal who behaved like some wannabe James Bond would behave if they were trying to be James Bond. His value is ... certainly not at the James Bond level.
Griner... if it were a straight white NBA player caught with drugs in a country that he had worked in for multiple years during the league offseason and should have been familiar with the laws of, it would be tough to even get a story on the nightly news about his arrest. Her value exists only on Twitter, if she goes back to playing basketball, she’ll get a hero’s welcome those first few games, but be playing to 3/4 empty arenas within a month.
With Joe Biden in charge, maybe El Chapo should already have his luggage ready.
“Well, my bags are packed.
I’m ready to go...”
Wrong. This was about immunity for MBS and dropping the murder charges against him . And Russia plus UAE want arms trade on Ukraine war arms from us.
And I think the swap happened in Saudi Arabia who brokered the whole deal in the first place.
when things don’t make sense, it means there is an x factor in what happened. all that X means is unknown. My speculation is that something that the Biden administration or the Russians don’t want public was traded.
Thinking about this purely from a geopolitical diplomatic angle, Russia leans heavily on an argument that NATO is trying to destroy Russia and is not far away from escalation into an existential war.
The counter-narrative is, NATO is doing far less in Ukraine than it did in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq precisely because it DOESN’T want to destroy Russia, and DOES need Russia to end its invasion fetish before overstepping the line which triggers Article 5.
The easiest solution would be for Ukraine to accept the loss of Crimea and Lugansk, Russia to leave Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and reverses those dumbass annexations (nothing more than PR stunts), tear up Minsk and Budapest agreements, and let Ukraine leave the NPT, follow the path of France out of agreed disarmament. Security guarantees in return for disarmament from Moscow are pointless as the chauvinists won’t honor them. But neither side is going to accept that solution.
So, how does NATO demonstrate that it actually isn’t trying to destroy Russia? Easy. Swap a completely expendable druggie of no strategic significance for an asset Russia badly needs in order to prop up its military supply chain.
Don’t ever forget, the USA and UK signed the Budapest Memorandum at Ukraine AND Russia’s invitation and the Agreement also covers Belarus and Khazakstan.
Budapest is an internationally negotiated treaty. It’s Russia’s own treaty that obliged them to stop interfering in Ukraine, and until 2014 they got away with repeat violation of it.
It’s their own treaty that rewarded them with nukes in return for guarantees, and it’s their own treaty that binds them as well as us into answering a call for help if Ukraine ever got invaded.
If NATO went into Belarus against the wishes of Belarus, Minsk could invoke CSTO AND Budapest, and even if CSTO decided not to assist militarily Russia would be morally obliged to respond with military assistance because of Budapest.
That’s how Budapest works.
What the Putinistas completely duck is the inconvenience of such aggreements to the guarantors doesn’t alter the effect of their signing. When Budapest was written up the West was throwing the door open to eastern Europe and Moscow was revelling in the idea of new opportunities. Nobody really thought a totalitarian regime led by warmongering Russian chauvinists carbon-copying the rise of Nazism in the 30s might one day test its limits in three countries it had sworn to respect in a state of peace.
Nobody dared believe we’d see the likes of Prigozhin Patrushev Lavrov Kadyrov Pushilin Medvedev and Putin go so nuts as to violate Budapest in the way they’re doing it.
And so we signed up to defend Ukraine. Far from having no legitimate reason to be there, we have the world’s strongest legal basis for it. Stronger than Gulf War 1, and far stronger than the War on Terror.
Within the moral authority of Budapest, the UK and USA could’ve thrown the kitchen sink at Russia in February. We could’ve bombed that miles long convoy.
Putin will never admit it but he was counting on the USA and UK bottling out of doing what would’ve been entirely justifiable.... AND he was right. Because our doing so would’ve made NATO a direct, active part of counteeoffensive operations.
So NATO has to manage the optics. Every time we could’ve opted to do something to frustrate Russian military strategy, we didn’t. And that includes swapping a vitally important arms dealer for a totally unimportant druggie.
Exactly. And he will be indebted to Putin in the fight against Ukraine. This administration is so dumb its scary.
Historically, this is the first trade for a WNBA player that anyone will remember.
Also, Laz would NOT hit it, and I don’t say that lightly.
No, I'd hit it.
I'd hit it like a Cossack Soldier.
....and the entire time, I would be singing this.
GLORY TO THE SOVIET UNION! GLORY TO MOTHER RUSSIA!
СЛАВА СОВЕТСКОМУ СОЮЗУ! СЛАВА МАТЕРИ РОССИИ!
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