[Rockingham]

Not only is Putin up to no good, but he is isolated, ill-advised by the toadies around him, and prone to let his ambitions exceed his capabilities. A conflict was near inevitable, and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine provides a more favorable venue for the US than defending the Baltic states.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

Rockingham: [Not only is Putin up to no good, but he is isolated, ill-advised by the toadies around him, and prone to let his ambitions exceed his capabilities. A conflict was near inevitable, and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine provides a more favorable venue for the US than defending the Baltic states.]

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Indeed. Ukraine brings 7x the combined populations of the Baltics to the fight, and has over 3x the land area. In addition, Ukraine, unlike the Balts, has significant air defenses, tanks and jet fighter aircraft, as the Russians have discovered in the course of their invasion.

Historically-speaking Ukrainians, going back to Ivan Mazepa, have been doughty fighters in defense of their sovereignty. After WWII, they mounted a dogged partisan war against Russian domination that saw hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians killed at Russian hands before they gave up, so this isn’t their first rodeo in the past century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army#Spring_1945%E2%80%93late_1946

What they lacked was a powerful foreign sponsor with the means and desire to keep them going until they achieved victory. Without French funding, it’s unclear whether the colonial rebels could have prevailed. At any rate, the French persisted, and the coup de grace at Yorktown was the end result.