UKRAINE ARMISTICE – HOW THE UDZ OF 2023 WILL SEPARATE THE ARMIES LIKE THE KOREAN DMZ OF 1953

For the buffer zone to achieve the demilitarization of the Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned in July that military factors, not politics, will decide. “I see no reason to question what President Vladimir Putin announced on February 24, 2022, and reaffirmed a few days ago,” Lavrov said. “Our goals remain the same. And they will be met. There is a solution to this problem. The military know this.”

In case the distinction Lavrov was making between political negotiations and military operations, between soldiers and civilians, wasn’t clear enough, Maria Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, made it the target of her irony last Thursday. In her regular briefing for reporters, Zakharova was asked to comment on US weapons supplies to the Ukraine. “Something is wrong with this world if two women are discussing Stingers, MANPADS, SAMS, and HARM anti-radar missiles,” she answered the journalist. “As a reminder, scaling up its military supplies to Kiev and directly controlling Ukrainian forces, including the provision of real-time recon data, Washington has, in fact, become a party to the conflict in Ukraine…As far as their internal dealings regarding how much money they give to whom, what particular supplies are underway, or what items they are running out of or have more of, this is not our concern. Let them decide what kind of games they want to play among themselves.”

The Kherson manoeuvre, announced by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Sergei Surovikin on November 9; the electric war campaign which has followed*; and the cutoff of troops, arms and supplies by train from Kiev to the eastern front, first announced by the Russian Defense Ministry on November 24, foreshadow how the military are preparing to establish the Ukrainian Demilitarized Zone (UDZ), its depth to the west of the Dnieper River, and the cities to be included in Russian-controlled territory.

This is a future to be established by the Russian General Staff, negotiated and signed by military officers of the NATO-controlled commands in Kiev and Lvov. The outcome is an end to hostilities with an armistice that is not a peace treaty.

The model is the armistice of Panmunjom of July 27, 1953, which ended the Korean War. The terms of the armistice took two years to negotiate by US, Korean and Chinese officers. The Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) which was the outcome was four kilometres in depth. The Ukrainian demilitarized zone (UDZ) will be up to one hundred kilometres in depth, depending on the range of the US and NATO missile and artillery weapons deployed on the Kiev side of the Dnieper. On the ground inside the UDZ there may be no electricity, no people, nothing except for the means to monitor and enforce the terms of the armistice.

For avoidance of doubt, red on the map means Russia. In what follows, Russian and other military sources have reviewed the official Russian policy statements, published operational bulletins, and social media and website commentaries in Russian. The maps with their overlays of the UDZ have been drawn by the sources to illustrate some of the constants, some of the variables in the present situation — the tactical options and the operational scenarios.

They are presented to warn that Russian politico-military thinking should not be interpreted as if it’s similar to US military doctrine. The sources also caution that the recent evidence of Polish government decision-making, leaked last week by Moscow, rules out the foreseeable prospect that, whoever wins next year’s Polish elections, any regime in Warsaw will be capable of more independence of Washington’s control than the regime in Kiev. Consequently, the Galician region will remain nominally Ukrainian, de facto North American. De-nazification of the Americans and Canadians entrenched between Lvov and Cracow is not a Russian objective. By contrast, the future for Hungarian Transcarpathia is beyond Washington’s control. Either way, Russian thinking is to “let the disaster zone that is rump Ukraine, west of the Dnieper, remain someone else’s problem.”

There are well-known advocates in Moscow for “the Ukrainian demilitarized zone to be all of the Ukraine”. In their words, “there is no sense in leaving western Ukraine to remain in bed with the US and deploy NATO weapons. Nothing will be offered to the Hungarians and Poles — they will have to earn it for themselves. It follows that demilitarization is not four or one hundred kilometres deep, comparable to the terms imposed on Germany in 1945 or on Korea in 1953. For Russia’s long-term security, look where we are in Germany and on the Korean peninsula right now. So eventually, for the long term the solution is the December terms. But the Americans won’t discuss this. Short of that — the Banderite state and its army must be defeated. That’s what demilitarization and de-nazification mean. There must not be a UDZ but a buffer that will be all of the Ukraine.”

Other sources believe that the official statements from Moscow, the operational evidence, and General Winter are all now indicating six months of formation and testing of the lines of a new UDZ and of the new Russia to the east of these lines.

For the demarcation of the eastern line of the UDZ, according to one source, “look at Kherson – I think she’s the prototype. Look at Krasny Liman as well. The electric war raids have been extended for the first time in November to the rail tracks moving west to east with Ukrainian military reinforcements of men and resupply of arms and ammunition. This signals the start of the campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. This is coordinated with the situation of what is left of the civilian population in the cities along this line. We are seeing the large population centres emptied.” Social media reports of new Russian ground force movements also indicate that a winter offensive of ground operations is being readied in parallel. How much is calculated feint and battlefield deception will be clear soon enough.

A Russian videoclip of Russian tanks repainted in winter white camouflage was recorded from a civilian car and posted this weekend on the internet; no location was identified. The car is travelling at about 40 kph; the clip lasts for one minute and when it stops, the line of tanks in the opposite lane is continuing to stretch to the horizon.

One Moscow source: “I cannot see Russians risking massive armoured movements or repeating their March manoeuvres. I believe the General Staff will wage the electricity war and put pressure on Kiev and on Europe while continuing a slow, inch-by-inch movement in Donbass. General Patience is more important than General Winter. Those two are on a par with General Iskander taking out electric substations and transport corridors. Putin will only come under pressure if he puts himself under pressure to take territory and takes thousands of casualties in the process. He does not want this. The General Staff does not want this. They have made this explicitly clear. So they have come up with new forms of warfare. Just how new these are hasn’t dawned yet in Kiev or Washington or Brussels.”

This is not positional warfare by Russian forces, all sources agree. But the outcome of highly mobile deployments (known as РЕЙД – “reyd” – in Russian military terminology) will be geographical. MAP OF THE UKRAINE WITH OVERLAY OF UDZ FORMED BY NEW RUSSIAN LINES……( more)…

Brilliant. The Western war cheerleaders never could figure out Vlad…..and Vlad will have the final Checkmate…..closing the page on Ukie War 1, with Ukie War II a few years down the road ( think of the inept US’s Gulf War I and II ).

Ukraine, and NATO US and Britain have not been honest partners in observing past efforts at peace with Russia. They played Russia and the Minsk Accords like a fiddle to buy time to militarize Ukraine.

Frankly I don’t believe Ukraine will be neutralized and demilitarized by diplomats.

North of the DMZ Pyongyang has amassed a million man army ….and nuclear weapons. I don’t see Russia living in safety if ultra-nationalist nazified Ukrainian Russophobes remain in power with the same strength and nuclear threats

Your dates are wrong. Their independence ended when Obama and Soros got to town in 2014. The country has had a US CIA/NSC ran government and country ever since. The warmongering globalists in DC destroyed Ukraine independence, not Putin. Putin is doing all he can to avoid seeing the loudly promised globalist regime change in Moscow. Honestly, I’d prefer just about anyone running Russia other Obama/Soros/WEF. You see what that trioka has done to America since their US coup.

Putinists love this kind of over the top tough talk and Imperial fantasies.

The reality is that after nine months of their three day war, they have passed the halfway point of burning through the conventional military equipment and stocks that were left over from the old Soviet Union, and are also halfway through the National Wealth Fund, which pays Russian pensions, like Social Security.

They have suffered a sickening loss of troops, already over five times as many as the Soviet Union lost in a decade in Afghanistan.

They have already retreated from over half of the territory that they temporarily occupied since the February invasion.

Yet still, this hubris.

Putin has driven Russia over a cliff. There is going to be a very hard landing.

Russia will not win the electricity war.
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They already won. Generators you say? Comical, do you have ANY idea the amount of electricity needed just to run a small city? ….and just how does the little fuel they have get pumped out of the storage tanks?….FYI- Vlad just finished taking out the Ukies rail system…..

Vlad has shown the Ukies he can shut down , de-energize and de- industrialize at will. Expect the 60 percent lack of electricity and 90 percent of country wide blackouts to ratchet up- when Vlad decides( most likely when General Winter arrives)…..and there is nothing the West can do….

Being that the incompetent UN, and their "management" of the "Police Action" in Post WWII Korea caused the Cease Fire For Negotiations stalemate, the NATO mismanagement of Post Warsaw Pact Eastern Europe could very well cause a similar Demilitarized Zone stalemate in Ukraine.

With friends like NATO and EU Western Europe Ukraine doesn't need enemies.

... Or GloboHomoNazis like Zelensky.

Exactly, I fully expect a major Fubar by the West, which will result in Ukie war II down the road. Reading about the upcoming Polish elections, it seems the Poles are upset with senile Joe’s incompetence, and the realization hitching your wagon to a senile old man doesn’t end well. Carving up of Ukraine is becoming a hot topic ( which the corrupted western media isn’t reporting).

I stand by my “ forecast”, …..Ukraine 1991-2023 RIP.

Maybe we should stop sending Ukraine billions of $$$.

Especially when American families put out 0f work by lockdowns are losing food benefits at the end of this month.

A lot of Poland including leadership, is worried about the trajectory of this conflict, and Hungary is similar and somewhat ahead of Poland.

Certainly Serbia, even with an occupational Western Puppet Government, is fully onboard with Russia (in spite of their government), and has never forgotten NATO bombing Genocide and Kosovo Ethnic Cleansing.

All the while the US economy collapses and inflates significantly faster than the rest of the world's economy.

All the while the US economy collapses and inflates significantly faster…
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Well said. I have a slew of Serbian friends…confirms your thoughts.The Western leaders do NOT represent their populations. Keep your eyes on the Polish elections coming up, the war cheerleaders have a surprise coming, the people in the EU are seeing through senile Biden’s war lies….much like Biden’s Covid lies.

Ukraine is spent, now a welfare nation to drag the EU and West down into the toilet. The facts are clearer every day, Ukraine 1991-2023 RIP, into the corrupted, fallen garbage bucket of history they go.

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