My estimation that Russian Military that comes out of the Ukraine war will be far more capable is still correct.
Leveraging soldiers for hire and any real military experience to pull itself out of the soviet collapse will mean it will develop a real world experience army.
Its not exactly “real world” experience.
Both sides are fighting a very constrained war, limited by circumstances that wont apply in another situation. Its telling that both sides have resorted to, on the whole, to trench warfare and prolonged bombardment, because this is what they can do given limited resources. This is therefore a very special case of modern war.
The Ukrainians have little to no tac air and their interdiction capability is short ranged and limited in volume of fire. This lets the Russians off the hook in a major way.
The Ukrainians have a very limited capability for operational maneuver, lacking the resources Nato or the US can bring. The Russians still seem to be totally incapable of it.
The Ukrainians have very little modern artillery. What they have received has done extremely well, but a Nato force of equivalent size would be equipped with 5-10x the firepower. The Russians have seen the prolonged attrition that a few tubes of modern artillery can bring, but not the shock of the same arriving all at once.
Neither side is facing modern tanks. Neither side is facing modern SEAD. Neither side is facing modern helicopter-atgm attacks.