Posted on 11/25/2022 8:15:28 PM PST by SeekAndFind
For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.
A late surge?
Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:
Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.
I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.
And Katie Hobbs was roundly criticized for her deer-in-the-headlights interviews near the end of the campaign. Just before the election, Hobbs was polling substantially below Lake, yet she won. Lake’s pre-election dominance is evident from the polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight:
Figure 1: Lake-Hobbs polling trends Oct 1 to Nov 8
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
It’s become a predictable pattern now. The Republican has a small lead on election night. Then comes harvest season over the following few days. Box after box ballots keep turning up until the Democrat is comfortably in the lead. Then it’s over.
By and large that WASN’T the pattern though, except for Nevada Senate. Arizona, Pennsylvania, the Republicans were behind from start to end.
The Republicans need to tighten up election integrity laws as much as possible in as many states as possible to make election fraud extremely difficult.
In states where that is not possible, they need to ballot harvest and engage in any and all dirty means of gathering ballots so as to compete with the Democrats. At first opportunity, they need to then enact strict election integrity laws which ban all election chicanery.
You can’t fight by the Marquis de Queensbury rules when the other side fights dirty.
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