Trump will get 15 million votes. The Republican candidate will get around 60 million votes. Biden (or the winning Democrat) will capture 400+ EVs.
Right now I give it 50% chance of that scenario happening.
RE: Split to allow big Dem win....
Why isn’t there a split on the Dem side?
Dr.Benjamin Spock, Eldridge Cleaver, Green Party, Peace and Freedom Party——all split votes away in the past. We lost votes with H. Ross Perot and even now with Libertarians taking 1-2% of the crucial local state votes away.
But today the Dems have their big tent coalition and all Dems come together to vote (several times each) for the Dem no matter what. AOC fans politely with Pelosi and Schumer fans.