As I noted earlier, the West is heavily invested in the belief that winning the information war will translate into battlefield success for Ukraine. Yet, we have seen how the “success” of the U.S. information wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have turned out. Money pits that have swallowed trillions of U.S. tax payer dollars with no actual success on the ground, where it counts.
Both of these cataclysmic wars — the Civil War and World War II — are relevant to the carnage unfolding in Ukraine. The facts are very simple:
Fact one — Ukraine’s economy is in tatters and there is no viable path to restore what it was on February 24, 2022.
Fact two — Ukraine is totally dependent on Western aid to keep it army in the field.
Fact three — Ukraine does not have a viable air force and cannot provide close air support to its front line troops. This means any Ukrainian advance on the ground is dependent on the limited armor and artillery units still intact.
Fact four — Ukraine’s ability to produce electricity and power is being steadily degraded and there is no short-term solution to keep the lights on.
Fact five — Russia has not committed its front line forces and high tech weaponry to the fight.
Fact six — Russia’s economy is strong despite Western efforts to sunder it.
Fact seven — Russia is economically self-sufficient. It does not need foreign exports to sustain its industrial base but the world does need critical products and minerals that only Russia produces.
Fact eight — Russian factories are operating 24/7, producing essential military equipment and technology to keep its forces in the fight.
Fact nine — Russia can mobilize and train new troops on its own territory without fear of attack from Ukraine. Ukraine cannot.
The United States and NATO are deluded. They are wielding power like the mean girls in high school, i.e. they are shunning Putin and won’t let him sit at their lunch table. They remain convinced that will crush him. What they did not count on is that Putin is building his own cafeteria and will eat the food he wants and a table he controls. In fact, many of the countries in Europe need essential resources that Russia supplies. It is just a matter of time before those girls try to get a seat at Putin’s table.
It is true that Russia relinquished, at least for now, the portion of Kherson that sits to the west of the Dnieper River. But it controls the rest of Kherson to the east of the river. If Ukraine wants Crimea it will have to cross the Dnieper and fight its way to Crimea. Ukraine does not have the military resources to do that; even with the help of the United States and NATO.
Blackouts could affect civilians in the city not frontline troops. It is ludicrous to claim that Russia has not fielded regular troops. They did but have been ineffective. Their performance is reportedly worse than Wagner mercenaries. Even Russians reportedly agree with it. Their heavy reliance on Iranian drones suggests that they are indeed low on high tech weaponry. Why do they go to Iran and bring their drones if they have enough stock of advanced missiles in Russia?
Russian economy has been intertwined with Western economy and there had been large presence of Western companies which helped Russian industry. Even Russian oil and gas industry was aided by Western oil companies to extract oil and gas from their oil fields.
Russia could make their industry more self-sufficient but at the expense of significantly degrading the quality of its products. If they lose revenue from the export of oil and gas, they lose much of export revenue. In addition, their arms export, another source of Russian export revenue, is essentially gone. To claim that these developments have little effect on Russian industry is a nonsense. Media did report that Russian has some materials the Western countries relied on. Would this cause severe disruption on the Western industry? So far, its impact seems very limited. How about critical materials which can be only produced by the West whose supply is completely lost due to sanction?
Russian factories can produce their weapons 24/7 all they want but their capacity is no match for the combined might of European and US industrial capacity. In WW2, this industrial machine was on the side of Soviet Union. Now it is on the Ukrainian side. This is really a serious problem which can turn the tide of war in the prolonged war they are into.
You forget that Ukrainian troops are trained in NATO countries. In UK, Poland, and Spain to name a few. Can Russian military hit those countries with their weapons and risk full NATO involvement? Furthermore, it seems that they are better trained with better weapons.
Lastly, Ukrainians continue to attack key supply and logistics infrastructure. They took over key supply hubs, cutting supply lines and blowing up supply depots. Whatever supply Russia has, it would become increasingly difficult to bring them to frontline Russian troops. Russia is at great disadvantage in terms of logistics and intelligence, two critical areas which are essential for prosecuting a prolonged war.
As for moving into the southern part of Kherson across the river, many reports suggest that Ukrainians are planning to attack the province to the east of Kherson and move westward to reach southern part of Kherson, skipping river-crossing.