I am not trying to counter anything you posted. I just want to add my opinion that Germany will most likely get through their current self-inflicted crisis just fine.
The bigger, long-term question is how will they survive their current demographic implosion, and what kind of nation will they become?
I suppose Japan might be the model in this respect.
Agree. I am not sure just fine is how it will be for them, they have deep problems now and serious energy problems that are not easily solved. They have a large restive migrant population also.
I think Japan is a very good direction they will head in. A very long period of self inflicted pain. And I wonder what will happen there politically. Pretty much everyone there believes it was a US/Brit/Pole scheme to blow the Nordstream and there will be some anger coming with every cold shower.
Germany is freezing even in normal times.
I think we will see some form of Japanese Germany, and as Germany is barely able to care for itself, the southern EU nations will get more restive and lean towards an exit from the Euro which is collapsing.
https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/happens-euro-collapses/
And I think we aren’t going to escape either. They are already talking 750 billion plus to rebuild Ukraine. And of course, we will be funneling all kinds of cash to the EU to keep them in NATO.
In government math, that means 3 trillion more on the US national debt.
I hope you live somewhere warm FRiend!